Offense meets defense when the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (14-6, 3-4 MWC) welcome the San Diego State Aztecs (12-7, 4-4 MWC) to Thomas & Mack Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 27, 2018, and will air on CBS Sports Network.
Neither team is favored and the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 160 points.
San Diego State Aztecs vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Prediction
In the Aztecs’ last game, they blew out the Colorado State Rams, 97-78. The Aztecs forced 16 turnovers, while the Rams had a free throw rate of 0.150 (below their season average of 0.264). Trey Kell had a solid performance for San Diego State, finishing with 17 points and five assists.
The Runnin’ Rebels were beaten by the Fresno State Bulldogs in their last game, 69-63. Fresno State’s 11.9 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over UNLV, who had a rate of 20.2. The Bulldogs’ mark was better than their season average of 15.4, while the Runnin’ Rebels’ was above their season average of 16.7. UNLV’s Brandon McCoy put up 13 points and 13 rebounds in the contest.
This matchup pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses as UNLV ranks 38th in offensive efficiency and San Diego State is 41st in defensive efficiency.
San Diego State heads into the contest with records of 12-7 straight up (SU) and 11-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Aztecs are involved, as 11 of their 17 games have finished over the total.
UNLV is 14-6 SU, but they struggle covering the spread (8-11-1 ATS). Runnin’ Rebels games also tend to finish over the O/U total (78.9 percent).
Jalen McDaniels has averaged 15.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.0 steals over the last five games for San Diego State.
After the Aztecs won all three meetings against the Runnin’ Rebels last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, San Diego State won 62-52. The Aztecs made 21 of their 26 free throws (80.8 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (31.6 vs. 20.0).
San Diego State Aztecs vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – San Diego State, ATS Winner – San Diego State, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
San Diego State is 5-4 ATS on the road with 8 overs and 1 under.
At home, UNLV is 6-6 ATS with 11 overs and 0 unders.
UNLV ranks 38th in three pointers allowed per game (19.2) while San Diego State ranks 208th (23.7).
The Aztecs rank 51st in rebounds per game (38.5) while the Runnin’ Rebels rank 176th in rebounds allowed per game (36.0).
UNLV ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (10.6) while San Diego State ranks 104th (12.9).
The Runnin’ Rebels average 4.3 blocks per game, which ranks 51st in the nation. The Aztecs rank 108th in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
San Diego State ranks 80th in steals per game (6.8) while UNLV ranks 136th in steals allowed per game (6.8).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, San Diego State is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
UNLV is 0-4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Aztecs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.8, down from 11.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Runnin’ Rebels have scored an average of 76.4 points per game (9.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 77.8 points per game (2.5 above their season average).
