The Phoenix Suns (17-34) look to snap their five-game losing streak when they challenge the Dallas Mavericks (16-35) at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns ATS Prediction
The Mavericks are trying to rebound after their 95-88 loss to the Miami Heat in their last matchup. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Dallas. The Heat had a rate of 0.533 (above their season average of 0.523), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.430 (below their season average of 0.517). Dallas’ Wesley Matthews played well, contributing 19 points and seven rebounds.
In the Suns’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Memphis Grizzlies, 120-109. Memphis’ 0.633 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix, who had a rate of 0.506. The Grizzlies’ mark was above their season average of 0.502. T.J. Warren put together a good game for Phoenix, leading the team in scoring with 24 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
Conflicting tempos will be on display in this showdown. Phoenix has preferred to play fast (fourth in possessions per game), while Dallas has been slower-paced (26th in possessions per game). Furthermore, the Mavericks rank first in turnover percentage (12.1 percent), while the Suns rank 27th in opponents’ turnover percentage (13.0 percent).
Dallas heads into the game with records of 16-35 straight up (SU) and 25-26 against the spread (ATS). Of the Mavericks’ 51 games, 29 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Phoenix owns records of 17-34 SU and 24-25-2 ATS. Much like Dallas, Suns games have a slight tendency to finish under the O/U total (51.0 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Mavericks lost 97-91, unable to cover as 7.5-point favorites. Harrison Barnes led both teams with 26 points. The game finished with a total of 188 points, which was 21.5 points below the projected point total of 209.5 points. The Suns had a better effective field goal percentage (0.506 vs. 0.426) and had a better free throw rate (0.215 vs. 0.182).
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 13-10 ATS on the road with 12 unders and 11 overs.
At home, Phoenix is 9-15-1 ATS with 14 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
When allowing under 100 points, Phoenix is 5-2 and Dallas is 12-10.
The Mavericks are 10-15 when they reach the century mark, while the Suns are 13-21.
Dallas ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (39.9) while Phoenix ranks 27th (47.5).
The Mavericks rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.6) while the Suns rank 27th (19.0).
Phoenix ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.3) while Dallas ranks 29th (9.6).
The Suns average 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Mavericks rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.7).
Dallas ranks ninth in steals allowed per game (7.3) while Phoenix ranks 27th (8.8).
The Mavericks rank ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while the Suns rank 26th (5.4).
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (31.8) while Phoenix ranks 19th (27.6).
The Suns rank 11th in rebounds per game (44.2) while the Mavericks rank 26th (40.6).
Dallas ranks 19th in assists per game (22.2) while Phoenix ranks 26th (21.0).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders.
Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.4, down from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 100.4 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (0.7 above their season average).
