The No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (20-1, 9-0 ACC) put their 12-game winning streak on the line when they meet the Louisville Cardinals (16-5, 6-2 ACC) at John Paul Jones Arena. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018, and will air on ESPN2.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 123 points with Virginia opening as a 10-point favorite.
Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers ATS Prediction
The Cardinals will be hoping for a similar result after thoroughly outplaying the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in their last matchup, 96-77. The Cardinals had a fantastically low turnover percentage of 8.2 (better than their season average of 15.0) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.577 (above their season average of 0.511). Louisville was lifted by V.J. King, who was the team’s high scorer with 15 points on 7-for-9 shooting.
In the Cavaliers’ last game, they won a close one over the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils, 65-63. Virginia’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Duke. The Cavaliers had a rate of 6.7 (better than their season average of 13.5), while the Blue Devils posted a mark of 20.8 (above their season average of 13.7). With 13 points, seven assists and five rebounds, Ty Jerome had a good game for Virginia.
Points could be at a premium in this contest between two of the NCAA’s top defenses. Virginia currently ranks second in defensive efficiency (84.7) and Louisville is 26th (95.1). Additionally, the Cardinals commit the 58th-fewest errors in the NCAA (turnover percentage of 17.0 percent), while the pesky defense of the Cavaliers causes the 16th-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 23.7 percent).
Louisville heads into the contest with records of 16-5 straight up (SU) and 10-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Games involving the Cardinals have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (57.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Virginia owns records of 20-1 SU and 14-4 ATS. Unlike Louisville, Cavaliers games have a tendency to finish under the total (77.8 percent).
Deng Adel has averaged 17.6 points and 7.2 rebounds over the last five games for Louisville.
After the Cavaliers won both matchups against the Cardinals last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the last game, Virginia won 71-55. The Cavaliers had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.9 vs. 17.1) and had a much better free throw rate (0.383 vs. 0.185).
Louisville Cardinals vs. Virginia Cavaliers Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Louisville is 4-3 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 2 unders.
Virginia is 7-3 ATS at home with 7 unders and 3 overs.
Virginia ranks 34th in rebounds allowed per game (31.7) while Louisville ranks 250th (38.5).
The Cavaliers rank fifth in steals allowed per game (4.2) while the Cardinals rank 119th (6.4).
Louisville ranks 152nd in three pointers attempted per game (21.8) while Virginia ranks 226th (19.2).
The Cardinals rank second in blocks per game (7.3) while the Cavaliers rank 56th in blocks allowed per game (2.9).
Virginia ranks first in assists allowed per game (8.3) while Louisville ranks 18th (10.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Louisville is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs.
Virginia is 5-0 ATS with 5 unders over their last five games.
The Cardinals’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.2, down from 9.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 63.4 points per game (5.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 49.4 points per game (2.7 below their season average).
