The Memphis Tigers (13-8, 4-4 AAC) travel to South Florida to play the Bulls (8-14, 1-8 AAC) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game can be seen on ESPNews at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 129.5 points with Memphis set as a 7-point favorite.
Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls ATS Prediction
The Tigers are trying to rebound after their 62-48 loss to the No. 9 Cincinnati Bearcats in their last matchup. Cincinnati’s 0.510 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Memphis, who had a mark of 0.344. The Bearcats’ mark was below their season average of 0.523, while the Tigers’ was below their season average of 0.492. Jeremiah Martin was the top scorer from either team with 20 points on 5-for-13 shooting.
The last time the Bulls played, they got blown out by the Houston Cougars, 63-40. Houston’s 31.4 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over South Florida, who had a mark of 16.7. The Cougars’ mark was below their season average of 34.4, while the Bulls’ was below their season average of 29.4. Payton Banks had a good game for South Florida, leading the team in scoring with 10 points on 3-for-8 shooting.
Half-court execution will be critical when two of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. South Florida ranks 333rd in possessions per game (65.4) and Memphis is 309th (66.5). Also, the Tigers could control the offensive glass in this contest as they rank 18th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.7 percent. The Bulls, meanwhile, rank 255th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.5 percent).
Memphis has a respectable 13-8 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 7-10-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Tigers’ 18 games that accepted bets, 11 have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, South Florida is 8-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS. Unlike Memphis, games featuring the Bulls have a tendency to finish over the total (55.6 percent).
After the Tigers won both matchups against the Bulls last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Memphis won 85-75. The Tigers had a much better turnover percentage (13.5 vs. 22.4) and had a much better free throw rate (0.333 vs. 0.222).
Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls Pick
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Memphis, ATS Winner – Memphis, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Memphis is 2-5 ATS on the road with 4 unders and 3 overs.
At home, South Florida is 3-7 ATS with 5 overs and 5 unders.
Memphis ranks 57th in blocks per game (4.2) while South Florida ranks 139th in blocks allowed per game (4.0).
The Tigers rank 234th in three pointers attempted per game (19.0) while the Bulls rank 274th (17.0).
Memphis ranks 199th in assists per game (12.4) while South Florida ranks 227th (11.8).
The Tigers average 6.1 steals per game, which ranks 130th in the nation. The Bulls rank 151st in steals allowed per game (7.0).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
South Florida is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Tigers have outscored opponents by an average of 1.4 points in their last five games. On the season, Memphis has lost by an average of 0.3 points.
During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 59.2 points per game (3.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 75.4 points per game (4.4 above their season average).
