The Philadelphia 76ers (24-24) go head-to-head with the Miami Heat (29-22) at Wells Fargo Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, February 2, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
Philadelphia opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 203 points.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Free Prediction
The Heat are trying to rebound after their 91-89 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing. One of Cleveland’s biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 38 free throw attempts, while Miami had 25. Goran Dragic was Miami’s high scorer with 18 points on 7-for-17 shooting.
In the 76ers’ last matchup, they fell to the Brooklyn Nets, 116-108. Brooklyn’s 25.0 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Philadelphia, who had a mark of 16.7. The Nets’ mark was above their season average of 21.9, while the 76ers’ was below their season average of 25.8. With 29 points on 8-for-19 shooting, Joel Embiid was the top scorer from either team.
Points could be at a premium in this contest between two of the league’s top defenses. Philadelphia ranks fourth in defensive efficiency (104.1) and Miami is fifth (104.2).
Miami holds records of 29-22 straight up (SU) and 25-24-2 against the spread (ATS). Heat games have a tendency to finish under the total (58.8 percent).
Meanwhile, Philadelphia owns records of 24-24 SU and 26-22 ATS. Unlike Miami, just over half of 76ers games have finished over the total.
After splitting four games last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the most recent matchup, the Heat won 125-98. Miami had a much better turnover percentage (11.6 vs. 16.7). Philadelphia, meanwhile, did a fantastic job of converting from the charity stripe (18-22; 81.8 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 18-10 ATS on the road with 17 unders, 10 overs and 1 push.
Philadelphia is 13-8 ATS at home with 11 unders and 10 overs.
Miami is 17-6 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Philadelphia is 9-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 20-7 and the 76ers are 21-16.
Miami ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.3) while Philadelphia ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
The 76ers rank sixth in second chance points per game (13.6) while the Heat rank 27th (10.3).
Miami ranks 12th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while Philadelphia ranks last (9.0).
The 76ers rank first in rebounds per game (46.9) while the Heat rank 19th (42.4).
Philadelphia ranks third in assists per game (25.4) while Miami ranks 21st (21.8).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (25.5) while the 76ers rank 19th (29.5).
Miami ranks 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while Philadelphia ranks last (19.4).
The 76ers rank 19th in fast break points per game (10.0) while the Heat rank 28th (7.5).
Philadelphia ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (41.7) while Miami ranks 11th (42.8).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
Philadelphia is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 0.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the 76ers have scored an average of 105.4 points per game (2.5 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (2.1 below their season average).
