The Houston Rockets (37-13) travel to Cleveland to play the Cavaliers (30-20) in what should be a high-scoring game. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018, and will air on ABC.
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers Free Prediction
In the Rockets’ last outing, they beat the San Antonio Spurs, 102-91. Houston’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over San Antonio. The Rockets had a rate of 9.0 (better than their season average of 12.7), while the Spurs posted a mark of 15.0. With 28 points on 10-for-20 shooting, James Harden was the top scorer from either team.
The Cavaliers barely escaped the Miami Heat in their last matchup, 91-89. One of Cleveland’s biggest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 38 free throw attempts, 13 more than Miami. LeBron James was the game’s high scorer with 24 points on 8-for-21 shooting.
This matchup figures to be a shootout as two of the NBA’s best offenses clash. Cleveland ranks fifth with 109.9 points per 100 possessions and Houston is second (113.0). Additionally, the Rockets, who rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.239), will face a tough test against the Cavaliers, who rank first in opponents’ FTA rate (0.160).
Houston comes into the game with records of 37-13 straight up (SU) and 24-25-1 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Rockets’ games have finished under the projected point total.
Cleveland has a respectable 30-20 SU record, but they have trouble covering the spread (14-35-1 ATS). Contrary to Houston, Cavaliers games have finished over the total 52.0 percent of the time.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Harden (32.6 points, 9.6 assists, 6.4 rebounds, 2.2 steals and 1.2 blocks) has been fantastic for the Rockets while Isaiah Thomas (16.6 points and 4.6 assists) has contributed greatly to the Cavaliers.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Harden recorded 35 points, 13 assists and 11 rebounds in the first game, in which the Rockets defeated the Cavaliers 117-113 but did not cover as 5.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 230 points, which was just 2 points above the projected point total of 228 points. Houston had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (43.6 vs. 12.5). Cleveland, on the other hand, had a better turnover percentage (17.1 vs. 19.2).
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Cavaliers, ATS Winner – Cavaliers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Houston is 14-10 ATS with 15 unders, 8 overs and 1 push.
At home, Cleveland is 5-19-1 ATS with 13 overs, 11 unders and 1 push.
Houston is 17-2 when they allow under 100 points, while Cleveland is 11-2.
The Cavaliers are 29-12 when they reach the century mark, while the Rockets are 36-10.
Houston averages 42.9 three pointers per game, which ranks first in the league. Cleveland ranks last in three pointers allowed per game (31.7).
The Rockets rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while the Cavaliers rank 23rd (44.2).
Houston ranks third in steals per game (8.9) while Cleveland ranks 22nd (7.2).
The Rockets rank 14th in assists allowed per game (22.9) while the Cavaliers rank last (25.9).
Cleveland ranks fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while Houston ranks 17th (4.9).
The Rockets average 18.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Cavaliers rank 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.9).
Cleveland ranks 18th in points in the paint per game (43.3) while Houston ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.7).
The Cavaliers average 11.2 fast break points per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Rockets rank 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (12.7).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Cleveland is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.8, down from 7.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 108.6 points per game (1.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.0 points per game (1.3 below their season average).
