The Minnesota Timberwolves (33-22) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (28-23) to Target Center as they try to continue their 11-game home winning streak. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 3, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220.5 points with Minnesota opening as a 7.5-point favorite.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Free Prediction
In the Pelicans’ last game, they defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder, 114-100. New Orleans held the Thunder to an effective field goal percentage of 0.428 (below their season average of 0.515). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, held the Pelicans to an offensive rebounding percentage of 11.9 (below their season average of 19.7). With 43 points on 17-for-34 shooting, Anthony Davis was the game’s leading scorer.
The Timberwolves easily got past the Milwaukee Bucks in their last contest, 108-89. Minnesota’s 0.583 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Milwaukee, who had a rate of 0.412. The Timberwolves’ mark was above their season average of 0.521, while the Bucks’ was below their season average of 0.535. With 24 points and 11 rebounds, Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns played well.
Minnesota figures to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Timberwolves rank third in offensive efficiency, while New Orleans ranks 20th in defensive efficiency. It will also be a tale of two tempos as the up-tempo Pelicans rank second in possessions per game, while the more methodical Timberwolves rank 23rd.
New Orleans holds records of 28-23 straight up (SU) and 26-24 against the spread (ATS). Of the Pelicans’ 50 games with betting action, 30 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is 33-22 SU and 27-25-3 ATS. Games involving the Timberwolves have a slight tendency to finish over the total (49.1 percent).
The Timberwolves have emerged victorious in all three games against the Pelicans this year, including a 116-98 blowout in their last matchup. Minnesota covered as a 2-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 214 points, which was just 4 points below the projected point total of 218 points. The Timberwolves had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.5 vs. 17.1) and had a much better turnover percentage (8.3 vs. 14.2). Towns recorded a double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds.
New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 15-10 ATS on the road with 13 unders and 12 overs.
Minnesota is 14-12-1 ATS at home with 13 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Minnesota is 16-4 and New Orleans is 8-1.
When reaching the century mark, the Pelicans are 26-16 and the Timberwolves are 31-13.
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.3) while New Orleans ranks 26th (8.4).
The Timberwolves rank second in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Pelicans rank 25th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
Minnesota averages 18.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the league. New Orleans ranks 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.0).
The Pelicans average 26.5 assists per game, which ranks second in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 22nd in assists allowed per game (24.1).
New Orleans averages 50.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks second in the league. Minnesota ranks 20th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.6).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while the Pelicans rank 22nd (44.1).
New Orleans ranks 13th in three pointers attempted per game (29.3) while Minnesota ranks 29th (22.0).
The Pelicans average 13.0 fast break points per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.2).
New Orleans ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Minnesota ranks 10th (4.6).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Minnesota is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Timberwolves have scored an average of 107.2 points per game (1.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.2 points per game (0.5 below their season average).
