In their final home game of the season, the Missouri State Bears (17-12, 7-9 MVC) host the Bradley Braves (18-11, 8-8 MVC) at JQH Arena. The game begins at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 21, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 133 points with Missouri State opening as a 6-point favorite.
Bradley Braves at Missouri State Bears Free Prediction
The Braves are hoping for a better outcome after their 77-64 loss to the Valparaiso Crusaders in their last outing. Valparaiso made good use of their 28 trips to the free throw line, making 25 of them (89.3 percent). Bradley, meanwhile, was just 17-25 (68.0 percent). Donte Thomas was the game’s leading scorer with 19 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
In the Bears’ last matchup, they fell to the Drake Bulldogs, 67-63. Converting at the free throw line was one of Drake’s largest strengths. They were 9-11 (81.8 percent), while the Bears were just 7-16 (43.8 percent). Missouri State’s Alize Johnson put together a solid game, leading the team in scoring with 14 points on 6-for-15 shooting.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NCAA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Missouri State currently ranks 306th in possessions per game (66.6) and Bradley is 328th (66.0). Moreover, the Braves rank 30th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.469), while the Bears rank 257th in effective field goal percentage (0.495).
Bradley comes into the contest with records of 18-11 straight up (SU) and 14-11-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Braves’ 27 games that accepted bets, 18 have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Missouri State is 17-12 SU and 11-15 ATS. Games featuring the Bears also have a tendency to finish under the total (61.5 percent).
Thomas has averaged 13.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks over the last five games for Bradley.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Darrell Brown Jr. scored a game-high 20 points and the Braves beat the Bears 72-52, covering as 1.5-point favorites. He also recorded eight assists. The game finished with a total of 124 points, which was just 2 points below the projected point total of 126 points. The Braves had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 14.9) and had a much better free throw rate (0.241 vs. 0.140).
Bradley Braves at Missouri State Bears Betting Pick
Basketball Tip: SU Winner – Missouri State, ATS Winner – Bradley, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Bradley is 4-10 ATS on the road with 10 unders and 4 overs.
Missouri State is 4-7 ATS at home with 8 unders and 3 overs.
Missouri State ranks 26th in rebounds per game (39.2) while Bradley ranks 114th (36.1).
The Bears rank 179th in three pointers attempted per game (21.3) while the Braves rank 257th (18.8).
Missouri State ranks 30th in assists allowed per game (11.2) while Bradley ranks 108th (12.9).
The Braves rank 26th in blocks allowed per game (2.5) while the Bears rank 94th (3.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Bradley is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Missouri State is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Braves have been outscored by an average of 7.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Bradley has defeated opponents by an average of 3.1 points.
During their last five games, the Bears have scored an average of 74.2 points per game (4.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 72.4 points per game (7.0 above their season average).
