After another crazy weekend on the college gridiron, we saw Ole Miss’ odds at winning the national title take a dramatic tumble while Auburn continues to climb. There are six top 25 matchups this weekend, so expect this ranking to look different next week. For now, here’s how the college football power rankings look according to national championship odds.
1. Oregon Ducks
This week: 9/2 Last week: 7/1The Ducks are in very good shape after finally defeating Stanford. The Ducks’ offense was stymied by Stanford in 2012 and 2013, but this time, Oregon found a way to crack Stanford’s defense, and now this team is in very good position to make the College Football Playoff.
The Ducks don’t have any gimmies in front of them, however. Following the very impressive performance against Stanford in which just about everything went right, the Ducks have to remain focused and come right back with another solid effort. A road trip to Salt Lake City for a night game against Utah could put Oregon in a tough environment.
Yet, that’s what this team likes to do as a collective: It enjoys getting into trouble and then figuring a way out of the jam. Heisman Trophy candidate Marcus Mariota is Oregon’s ace in the hole. When he suffers and doesn’t play well, this team looks very ordinary. However, Mariota was sharp against Stanford, and when he’s in rhythm, it’s not reasonable to bet against Oregon. The Ducks are a team that just doesn’t want to be snapped out of any sort of comfort zone or trance.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: 5/1 Last week: 5/1The Crimson Tide are waiting for the three biggest games of their season. They can play only one game at a time, but they know this month of November will ultimately decide their fate. They go to LSU, then host Mississippi State, and later host Auburn. If Alabama can win all three games, it will be the SEC champion for 2014. It will also be a part of the College Football Playoff.
The big question here remains quarterback Blake Sims, who continues to have some hiccups as a first-year starter. Against LSU, he cannot afford the same missteps he made in Alabama’s sloppy loss to Ole Miss. If Sims can eliminate mistakes and get the ball consistently to playmakers like Amari Cooper and T.J. Yeldon then there’s maybe no team in the country that can beat the Tide
3. Florida State Seminoles
This week: 6/1 Last week: 15/2The Seminoles are the masters of the big comeback. Once down 21-0 and later trailing by a 24-7 score in the second half against Louisville last Thursday night, Florida State did what it always does. It stormed back and made all the plays it needed to make.
Florida State got past one of the tougher tests of its regular season, and more specifically, of quarterback Jameis Winston’s season. Winston threw some dangerous passes against Louisville, but also got away with some big plays. If you fail to take advantage of even the smallest opportunity against Winston, you’ll lose. Any opponent of Florida State has to be able to pounce on every chance it gets to make a play or shorten the field or score seven points. It’s that simple to say, but it’s also hard to do.
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs
This week: 7/1 Last week: 7/1The Bulldogs are surviving and doing little else. Mississippi State is arguably the best team in the country in terms of rankings as they top every notable list, but a close call against Arkansas narrows the margin. They survived in a 17-10 fight with Arkansas after picking off a pass at the goal line against a Razorback team that has not won a conference game since 2012. Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott will have to be a lot better at Alabama on Nov. 15.
5. Michigan State Spartans
This week: 17/2 Last week: 8/1Michigan State has finally made it to Ohio State week. The Spartans take on the Buckeyes in the meeting that will probably decide a conference championship and give the winner a chance to make the College Football Playoff. Michigan State and Ohio State have both been inconsistent with the forward pass this season, and they’ve both been less than dominant in at least one road game over the past few weeks. The team that can clean up its game is the team that’s going to leave the field victorious.
6. Auburn Tigers
This week: 9/1 Last week: 12/1The Tigers stayed right in the thick of the playoff chase with a 35-31 win at Ole Miss. Everyone thought the Tigers were done for when Ole Miss flanker Laquon Treadwell sprinted toward the end zone late in the game with Auburn leading by four points. However, he was caught from behind and improbably fumbled on the half-yard line before scoring a touchdown and breaking his ankle in one of the most tragic endings to a game in recent memory.
Auburn is no stranger to improbable endings after its 2013 season that featured a tipped Hail Mary heave for a touchdown and the famous missed field goal return to beat Alabama.
7. TCU Horned Frogs
This week: 10/1 Last week: 7/1The Horned Frogs were down by nine points to West Virginia in the fourth quarter of this past Saturday’s game against the Mountaineers. TCU responded by scoring 10 points in that final quarter to win by one and shoot up the ratings. Now, if TCU can get past Kansas State this next week, the Horned Frogs will have a very tough time being left out of the College Football Playoff. Their remaining schedule is soft. One could make the argument that this is the toughest regular season game left for TCU.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
This week: 14/1 Last week: 12/1The Buckeyes now get ready to face Michigan State, and if they win the game is that is considered the tiebreaker for purposes of representing the Big Ten in the major bowl picture, they will have a legitimate shot at the College Football Playoff. It’s going to be challenging to deal with a road night crowd, but that’s exactly what the Ohio State offense must do. Head coach Urban Meyer will be excited to see what his team can do in the face of a hostile crowd.
Tie, 9. Kansas State Wildcats
This week: 16/1 Last week: 25/1The Wildcats have a lot of tough games left, but if they can get past this one against TCU, they would probably be slight favorites over West Virginia on Nov. 20. They would then be able to create a one-game Big 12 playoff against Baylor in early December. The Big 12 is a fascinating race, and Kansas State’s at the heart of it.
Tie, 9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
This week: 16/1 Last week: 18/1The Fighting Irish play a huge game at Arizona State this week. A victory in the desert would certainly bolster Notre Dame’s chances of making the College Football playoff. You can see that Arizona State is next on this odds list and the Sun Devils actually enter the match-up as a two-point favorite.
