NCAAF Picks: The Arizona State Sun Devils have proven that last year’s Pac 12 South Division title was no fluke with a resiliency that has impressed fans and handicappers alike. The Sun Devils succeeded through the temporary injury to QB Taylor Kelly and with his return they are again a dangerous and capable betting value. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one controversial official’s call away from being undefeated but are still very much in the Final Four playoff hunt.
The Arizona State Sun Devils will host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Sun Devil Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ABC starting at 3:30 PM ET. Arizona State is listed as a 2.5-point favorite.
Sun Devils Rising
Arizona State is 7-1 straight up, 4-4 against the spread, and 3-5 under the total. The Sun Devils are coming off a 19-16 overtime home win over Utah but failed to cover as 6.5 point chalks. Arizona State had paid out in their three previous games. Kelly and backup Mike Bercovici have combined for a 19-5 TD-INT ratio. RB DJ Foster leads all ASU ball carriers with 5.8 yards per carry and six TDs.
Defense Wearing Down
Notre Dame is 7-1 SU, a profitable 5-3 ATS, and 3-5 under the total. The Irish are coming off a 49-39 win over Navy but failed to cover as 14 point chalks. Notre Dame’s highly touted defense has slipped in their last three games with no less than 31 points allowed in each of their last three games. The Irish are also struggling to overcome five players out with academic issues. Quarterback Everett Golson has proven to be a difference making upgrade after missing last year due to suspension. Golson has a 22-7 TD-INT ratio.
Our Pick
Notre Dame has been a strong betting value on the road as the Irish have paid out in eight out of their last 12 away games. Notre Dame has gone under the total in 10 out of their last 14 road games.
Arizona State has seen their betting value erode at home with just two payouts in their last seven games at Sun Devil Stadium. The Sun Devils have gone under the total in five out of their last seven home games.
Notre Dame has won and covered the spread in their last three meetings with Arizona State as the last two meetings between the Irish and Sun Devils have gone over the total. Last year at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas the Fighting Irish scored a 37-34 payout over the Sun Devils as the game soared over the total of 63.5.
We’ll call for Notre Dame (-2.5) and over the total.
