It will be a battle between MWC opponents when the Air Force Falcons (11-16, 5-10 MWC) welcome the Fresno State Bulldogs (20-9, 10-6 MWC) to Clune Arena. The game is scheduled to get underway at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, February 26, 2018.
Fresno State is an 8-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 140.5 points.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Air Force Falcons Free Prediction
The Bulldogs are hoping for a better outcome after their 78-68 loss to the Wyoming Cowboys in their last outing. Getting to the free throw line was one of Wyoming’s biggest strengths. They made 25 trips to the line, while Fresno State went just 14 times. Jahmel Taylor had a good performance for Fresno State, finishing with 16 points and eight rebounds.
In the Falcons’ last matchup, they beat the Utah State Aggies, 75-65. The Falcons had a ridiculous free throw rate of 0.333 (above their season average of 0.239), while the Aggies had a turnover percentage of 20.6 (above their season average of 16.8). Lavelle Scottie was the game’s leading scorer with 18 points on 6-for-10 shooting.
The offense of Air Force (244th in the nation with an offensive efficiency of 102.9) will clash against the elite defense of Fresno State (99th in the nation with a defensive efficiency of 100.9). The Bulldogs figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Fresno State holds records of 20-9 straight up (SU) and 12-13 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Bulldogs’ games have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Air Force is 11-16 SU and 14-8 ATS. Unlike Fresno State, games involving the Falcons have finished under the O/U total 54.5 percent of the time.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Deshon Taylor scored a game-high 18 points in the first matchup, in which the Bulldogs defeated the Falcons 71-59 but could not cover as 16-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 130 points, which was 7 points below the projected point total of 137 points. Fresno State had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 vs. 19.4). Air Force, on the other hand, did a great job of making free throws (19-22; 86.4 percent).
Fresno State Bulldogs at Air Force Falcons Betting Pick
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Fresno State is 7-5 ATS with 8 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Air Force is 8-2 ATS with 6 overs and 4 unders.
Fresno State ranks 25th in three pointers allowed per game (18.8) while Air Force ranks 231st (23.9).
The Bulldogs rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (30.8) while the Falcons rank 121st (34.1).
Fresno State ranks 143rd in assists per game (13.6) while Air Force ranks 197th in assists allowed per game (14.4).
The Bulldogs rank 15th in steals allowed per game (4.9) while the Falcons rank 57th (5.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Fresno State is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Air Force is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 12.4, up from 9.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Falcons have scored an average of 71.2 points per game (2.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 76.2 points per game (3.4 above their season average).
