The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (22-7, 14-2 CUSA) head to Middle Tennessee to take on the No. 24 Blue Raiders (23-5, 15-1 CUSA) in a matchup that pits sensational offense against exceptional defense. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 1, 2018, and will air on CBS Sports Network.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 145 points with Middle Tennessee set as a 4-point favorite.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Prediction
The last time the Hilltoppers played, they dismantled the Old Dominion Monarchs, 88-66. The Hilltoppers knocked down 13 of their 18 free throws (72.2 percent) and had a turnover percentage of 10.7 (better than their season average of 15.3). Western Kentucky was lifted by Justin Johnson, who had 19 points and 11 rebounds.
The Blue Raiders easily got past the UAB Blazers in their last matchup, 79-54. Middle Tennessee’s 9.2 turnover percentage was their largest strength over UAB, who had a mark of 20.5. The Blue Raiders’ mark was better than their season average of 16.0, while the Blazers’ was above their season average of 16.7. Nick King was the game’s high scorer with 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
Middle Tennessee should have an advantage on the offensive glass in this battle. The Blue Raiders rank 73rd in offensive rebounding percentage (32.3 percent), while Western Kentucky ranks 201st in defensive rebounding percentage (71.0 percent). Furthermore, the Hilltoppers rank 36th in offensive efficiency (113.7), while the Blue Raiders rank 25th in defensive efficiency (96.9).
Western Kentucky holds records of 22-7 straight up (SU) and 18-9 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Hilltoppers games, with 14 unders compared to 13 overs.
Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee is 23-5 SU and 15-10 ATS. Vegas tends to place the total high when the Blue Raiders are involved, as 72.0 percent of their games have gone under the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Darius Thompson (17.0 points, 5.2 assists and 2.2 steals) has been stellar for the Hilltoppers while Antwain Johnson (16.2 points and 1.4 steals) has made solid contributions to the Blue Raiders.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, King scored a game-high 28 points and the Blue Raiders defeated the Hilltoppers 66-62, covering as 5.5-point underdogs. He also had nine rebounds. The game finished with a total of 128 points, which was 12.5 points below the projected point total of 140.5 points. The Blue Raiders had a much better turnover percentage (14.1 vs. 21.5) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.481 vs. 0.451).
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Free Pick
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Middle Tennessee, ATS Winner – Middle Tennessee, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Western Kentucky is 10-3 ATS with 7 overs and 6 unders.
Middle Tennessee is 6-3 ATS at home with 7 unders and 2 overs.
Middle Tennessee ranks 47th in assists allowed per game (11.5) while Western Kentucky ranks 153rd (13.6).
The Blue Raiders rank 14th in rebounds allowed per game (30.6) while the Hilltoppers rank 102nd (33.6).
Middle Tennessee ranks 225th in three pointers attempted per game (19.8) while Western Kentucky ranks 302nd (15.3).
The Hilltoppers rank 41st in steals per game (7.4) while the Blue Raiders rank 115th (6.4).
Middle Tennessee ranks 50th in blocks allowed per game (2.8) while Western Kentucky ranks 111th (3.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Western Kentucky is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Middle Tennessee is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Hilltoppers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 18.8, up from 10.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Blue Raiders have scored an average of 82.2 points per game (7.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 66.8 points per game (1.5 above their season average).
