NCAAF Picks: Last week in Georgia’s 38-20 loss to the Florida Gators everyone was reminded why there has always been an element of skepticism regarding Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt. The loss once again pointed out how Georgia cannot get out of its own way when it counts most and that they continue to squander a roster that is loaded with talent. The Kentucky Wildcats are one win shy of a bowl game but are running out of steam fast with a roster that lacks the depth to hang for the long haul in the brutal SEC.
The Wildcats will host the Bulldogs at Commonwealth Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN starting at noon ET. Georgia opened as an 11 point favorite.
UGA-ly Loss
It’s bad enough that Georgia lost to a Florida team that was written off for dead but to make matters worse they were dominated as 11 point favorites. Georgia’s flaws were exposed in the defeat starting with a passing offense that ranks a dismal 100th in the nation followed by a rush defense that ranks 47th overall. Georgia entered the game touted as Final Four playoff material but not anymore. At the end of the day the Bulldogs came off as soft and unprepared which is all on Richt.
Fading Fast
Kentucky is 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS, and 5-4 over the total after a 20-10 loss at Missouri in which they failed to cover as seven point dogs. The Wildcats have lost three games in a row SU. Head coach Mark Stoops is making tremendous strides and the UK program is vastly improved in his second year. Stoops simply needs to recruit more depth to make a serious push for the long haul.
Our Pick
Georgia has struggled to maintain good betting value on the road with just four payouts in their last 14 away matchups. The Bulldogs have gone over the total in six out of their last nine away games.
Kentucky has been a dangerous home team however with five payouts in their last six games at Commonwealth Stadium as four out of their last six home games have gone over the total.
Kentucky has covered the spread in four out of their last six games against Georgia with four out of the last six meetings between the Wildcats and Bulldogs going over the total. UK has paid out in three out of their last four home games with Georgia as four out of the last six meetings at Kentucky between the Bulldogs and Wildcats have gone over the total.
We like the spunk and fight of Stoops’ Wildcats and respect their improvement and payout rate at home. Kentucky and over the total is the call.
