In only their first head-to-head meeting of the regular season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres take the ice at the KeyBank Center in a divisional showdown. The matchup gets started at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, March 5, and you’ll be able to catch the game live on NBC Sports Network.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Odds
Toronto (+150) is entering this one as the underdog to Toronto (-170) and the Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 6 goals. The line for betting the total stands at -125 for the over and +105 for the under.
Toronto is 39-28 straight up (SU) and has netted 4.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. 32 of its outings have gone over the total, while 31 have gone under and just four have pushed. The Leafs are 17-18 SU on the road in 2017-18.
Toronto has converted on 20.0 percent of its power play opportunities this year, a figure that’s right around league average. Its penalty kill is ranked seventh overall, and it has successfully killed off 82.7 percent of its penalties.
For the team as a whole, the Leafs have been penalized just 3.3 times per game overall in the 2017-18 season, and 2.2 per game over its last ten contests. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 4.4 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Averaging 31.3 saves per game with a .920 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (33-22-5) has been the top option in goal for Toronto this season. If Toronto chooses to rest him, however, head coach Mike Babcock could go with Curtis McElhinney (7-6-1), who has a .931 save percentage and 2.20 goals against average this year.
Mitchell Marner and Auston Matthews will both be relied on to produce for the visiting Maple Leafs. Marner has 53 points via 17 goals and 36 assists, and has recorded two or more points in 13 different games. Matthews has 28 goals and 22 assists to his nameand has registered at least one point in 32 games.
Buffalo is 20-45 straight up (SU) and has lost 16.4 units for moneyline bettors thus far. 33 of its outings have gone under the total, while 28 have gone over and just four have pushed. This year, the team’s 9-22 SU as the home team.
The Sabres have converted on just 17.2 percent of their power play opportunities this season, a mark that places them in the bottom 10 overall among NHL teams. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 18th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 79.7 percent of all penalties.
Sabres players have been whistled for penalties 3.6 times per game in total this season, 3.4 per game over their last five contests total, and 3.8 per game over their last five at home. The team has had to kill penalties 8.8 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Robin Lehner (27.0 saves per game) has been the primary choice in goal for the Sabres. Lehner has 13 wins, 34 losses, and eight overtime losses to his credit and has registered a pedestrian 2.97 goals against average and a poor .909 save percentage this year.
The home team will be led on offense by Jack Eichel (22 goals, 31 assists).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres Betting Predictions
NHL Tip: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Trends
Toronto has allowed 2.8 goals per game this year, but has given up 4.0 goals per contest over its three-game losing skid.
Power-play opportunities could be extremely important tonight. The Maple Leafs are 15-9 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 29-26 in games where they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 minutes, total. The Sabres are 7-17 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 16-31 when total penalty minutes are in the single digits.
Two of Toronto’s last ten games have gone to a shootout. The team is 1-1 in those games and 6-2 overall in shootouts this season.
Toronto may hold an advantage if it’s a tight one late. The team’s an impressive 21-10 in games decided by one goal, while Buffalo is only 9-21 in such games.
The under has hit in three of Buffalo’s last five outings.
Buffalo has averaged 5.6 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 6.9 giveaways per game (ranked 6th in the NHL).
Toronto skaters have averaged 9.0 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 12.0 giveaways per game (ranked 27th in the NHL).
