The Miami Heat (34-31) clash with the Philadelphia 76ers (35-28) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game will air on Fox Sports Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 208.5 points with Philadelphia set as a 1.5-point favorite.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the 76ers’ last game, they defeated the Charlotte Hornets, 128-114. Philadelphia’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Charlotte. The 76ers had a rate of 28.6 (above their season average of 25.6), while the Hornets posted a mark of 19.0. Philadelphia rallied around Ben Simmons, who recorded 16 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds.
The Heat were beaten by the Washington Wizards in their last contest, 117-113. Washington made good use of their 27 trips to the free throw line, making 23 of them (85.2 percent). Miami, meanwhile, was 20-27 (74.1 percent). Miami’s Tyler Johnson finished with 21 points in the game.
The offense of Miami will go head-to-head against the stingy defense of Philadelphia. The Heat rank 20th in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers are fifth in defensive efficiency. The 76ers figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball. Also, the 76ers, who rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), will go head-to-head against the Heat, who rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.1 percent).
Philadelphia comes into the game with records of 35-28 straight up (SU) and 36-27 against the spread (ATS). Of the 76ers’ 63 games, 32 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 34-31 SU and 33-29-3 ATS. Contrary to Philadelphia, games including the Heat have a slight tendency to go under the O/U total (52.3 percent).
The 76ers lead the season series against the Heat two games to one, but fell short the last time these two teams met, 102-101. Philadelphia covered as a 2-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 203 points, which was just 2.5 points below the projected point total of 205.5 points. The Heat had a much better turnover percentage (13.7 vs. 19.6) and had a better free throw rate (0.256 vs. 0.226). Hassan Whiteside put up a double-double in the victory with 15 points and 11 rebounds.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – 76ers, ATS Winner – 76ers, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Philadelphia is 16-18 ATS on the road with 19 overs and 15 unders.
At home, Miami is 11-18-2 ATS with 16 unders, 14 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Miami is 20-6 and Philadelphia is 15-0.
In games where they reach the century mark, the 76ers are 32-18 and the Heat are 24-15.
Miami ranks 10th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while Philadelphia ranks 28th (8.9).
The Heat average 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The 76ers rank 25th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
Philadelphia ranks first in rebounds per game (46.6) while Miami ranks 19th (43.0).
The Heat rank 13th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.1) while the 76ers rank last (19.5).
Philadelphia ranks third in assists per game (25.7) while Miami ranks 20th (22.2).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (25.8) while the 76ers rank 15th (29.3).
Philadelphia ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (41.4) while Miami ranks 13th (43.4).
The 76ers rank 20th in fast break points per game (10.2) while the Heat rank 28th (8.1).
Philadelphia ranks sixth in second chance points per game (13.6) while Miami ranks 10th in second chance points allowed per game (11.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The 76ers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, up from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 111.6 points per game (9.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (7.4 above their season average).
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