The Oklahoma City Thunder (37-29) clash against the Phoenix Suns (19-47) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 8, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 228.5 points with Oklahoma City opening as an 11-point favorite.
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The last time the Suns played, they were thoroughly outplayed by the Miami Heat, 125-103. Making free throws was one of Miami’s largest strengths. They were 19-23 (82.6 percent), while the Suns were just 9-18 (50.0 percent). Devin Booker was the game’s high scorer with 31 points on 12-for-22 shooting.
The Thunder lost to the Houston Rockets in their last contest, 122-112. Houston made good use of their 34 trips to the free throw line, converting on 29 of them (85.3 percent). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, was 8-11 (72.7 percent). Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had a solid performance, leading both teams in scoring with 32 points on 15-for-27 shooting.
Expect Oklahoma City to own the offensive glass in this battle. The Thunder are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking first in offensive rebounding percentage at 28.3 percent. Meanwhile, Phoenix ranks 28th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.1 percent. Also, the Suns rank 23rd in turnover percentage (14.6 percent), while the Thunder rank second in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.4 percent).
Phoenix heads into the contest with records of 19-47 straight up (SU) and 30-34-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Suns games, with 32 overs compared to 32 unders.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 37-29 SU and 25-40-1 ATS. Games involving the Thunder have a slight tendency to finish under the total (53.0 percent).
Booker has averaged 32.6 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists over the last five games for Phoenix.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Thunder won the most recent matchup 124-116, covering as 7.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 240 points, which was 12.5 points above the projected point total of 227.5 points. The Thunder made 21 of their 29 free throws (72.4 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (9.2 vs. 11.1). Westbrook recorded a double-double with 43 points and 14 rebounds.
Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Phoenix is 18-14-1 ATS with 16 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
At home, Oklahoma City is 12-19-1 ATS with 17 unders and 15 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Phoenix is 6-2 and Oklahoma City is 18-5.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Suns are 15-29 and the Thunder are 33-15.
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.0) while Phoenix ranks 29th (6.7).
The Thunder rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while the Suns rank 29th (45.7).
Oklahoma City ranks second in points off turnovers per game (18.7) while Phoenix ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.8).
The Thunder average 15.2 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the league. The Suns rank 26th in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in fast break points per game (14.7) while Phoenix ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (14.6).
The Thunder rank ninth in blocks per game (5.0) while the Suns rank 29th in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
Oklahoma City ranks 10th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.1) while Phoenix ranks 25th (47.5).
The Suns rank 12th in three pointers allowed per game (28.7) while the Thunder rank 25th (30.6).
Phoenix ranks 27th in assists per game (21.2) while Oklahoma City ranks 28th (21.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.4, down from 8.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.8 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (8.1 above their season average).
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