The Denver Nuggets (35-30) go head-to-head with the Los Angeles Lakers (29-35) at Pepsi Center. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainment at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, March 9, 2018.
Denver opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 230 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Lakers come in on a high note after narrowly defeating the Orlando Magic in their last outing, 108-107. Los Angeles had a better turnover percentage (13.0 vs. 14.9). Orlando, meanwhile, held the Lakers to an offensive rebounding percentage of 16.7 (below their season average of 24.1). Los Angeles rallied around Kyle Kuzma, who had 20 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Nuggets’ last game, they were beaten by the Cleveland Cavaliers, 113-108. Cleveland’s 9.5 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver, who had a mark of 18.3. The Cavaliers’ mark was better than their season average of 12.6, while the Nuggets’ was above their season average of 13.3. Denver’s Nikola Jokic had a solid performance, leading the team in scoring with 36 points on 12-for-14 shooting.
Denver appears to have an edge on the offensive glass in this meeting. The Nuggets are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage at 26.2 percent. Meanwhile, Los Angeles ranks 15th in the league at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 77.4 percent. Furthermore, the Lakers, who rank 23rd in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.182), will face off against the Nuggets, who rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.175).
Los Angeles heads into the contest with records of 29-35 straight up (SU) and 35-29 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Lakers games, with 35 overs compared to 29 unders.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 35-30 SU and 29-33-3 ATS. Contrary to Los Angeles, games involving the Nuggets have finished under the total 50.8 percent of the time.
A number of players have played well over the last five games for Los Angeles. Julius Randle has led the way, averaging 20.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Isaiah Thomas (19.8 points and 5.8 assists) and Brook Lopez (12.0 points and 1.8 blocks) have also been superb.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Nuggets won the most recent matchup 115-100, covering as 4-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 215 points, which was 7 points below the projected point total of 222 points. The Nuggets had a much better turnover percentage (10.8 vs. 18.1) and had a better free throw rate (0.264 vs. 0.174). Jamal Murray scored a game-high 28 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Los Angeles is 18-15 ATS on the road with 19 overs and 14 unders.
At home, Denver is 17-16-1 ATS with 18 unders and 16 overs.
In games where they allow less than 100 points, Los Angeles is 11-3 and Denver is 13-2.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Lakers are 26-22 and the Nuggets are 29-21.
Denver ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.5) while Los Angeles ranks 29th (13.7).
The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while the Lakers rank 29th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.6).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while Los Angeles ranks 24th (45.1).
The Lakers average 23.9 assists per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 25th in assists allowed per game (24.5).
Denver averages 17.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Los Angeles ranks 26th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.5).
The Lakers rank second in fast break points per game (17.3) while the Nuggets rank 18th in fast break points allowed per game (12.3).
Denver ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.8) while Los Angeles ranks 28th (5.6).
The Nuggets rank ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.4) while the Lakers rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1).
Los Angeles ranks 11th in steals per game (8.1) while Denver ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Los Angeles is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 7.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Los Angeles has lost by an average of 1.6 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (5.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.4 points per game (6.6 above their season average).
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