The Houston Rockets (51-13) travel to Toronto to take on the Raptors (47-17) in a matchup that pits outstanding offense against superb defense. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 9, 2018, and will air on ATTSN Southwest.
Houston opened as a 1-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 221 points.
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
The Rockets come in on a high note after beating the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game, 110-99. The Rockets had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 27.3 (above their season average of 21.7), while the Bucks had a free throw rate of 0.169 (below their season average of 0.227). Houston was lifted by James Harden, who led the team in scoring with 26 points on 8-for-20 shooting.
The last time the Raptors played, they edged the Detroit Pistons, 121-119. Toronto’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Detroit. The Raptors had a rate of 8.4 (better than their season average of 11.5), while the Pistons posted a mark of 14.6. DeMar DeRozan was the game’s high scorer with 42 points on 16-for-28 shooting.
It might turn into a shootout as two of the NBA’s top offenses battle. Toronto ranks fourth with 111.5 points per 100 possessions and Houston is second (114.2). Furthermore, the Rockets, who rank first in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.245), could get to the line a ton against the Raptors, who rank 25th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.217).
Houston comes into the contest with records of 51-13 straight up (SU) and 34-29-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Rockets games, with 33 unders compared to 30 overs.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 47-17 SU and 36-28 ATS. Contrary to Houston, a little over half of Raptors games have finished over the total.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Rockets lost 129-113, unable to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Harden led both teams with 38 points and also added 11 assists and six rebounds. The game finished with a total of 242 points, which was 24.5 points above the projected point total of 217.5 points. The Raptors’ 11.1 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Rockets, who had a rate of 16.4.
Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Houston is 22-11 ATS with 19 unders, 13 overs and 1 push.
Toronto is 18-14 ATS at home with 17 unders and 15 overs.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Toronto is 23-5 and Houston is 23-2.
The Rockets are 49-10 when they reach the century mark, while the Raptors are 44-10.
Toronto ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Houston ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.2).
The Rockets rank ninth in second chance points allowed per game (11.7) while the Raptors rank 25th (13.3).
Toronto ranks second in blocks per game (6.1) while Houston ranks 17th (4.6).
The Rockets rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.0) while the Raptors rank 16th (43.0).
Toronto averages 18.4 points off turnovers per game, which ranks third in the league. Houston ranks 15th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.3).
The Raptors rank second in three pointers allowed per game (25.0) while the Rockets rank 13th (28.9).
Toronto averages 13.8 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Houston ranks 16th in fast break points allowed per game (11.9).
The Raptors rank third in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Rockets rank ninth (7.5).
Toronto ranks seventh in assists per game (23.8) while Houston ranks 13th in assists allowed per game (22.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 8.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 109.8 points per game (2.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.2 points per game (2.1 below their season average).
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