The No. 3 Xavier Musketeers (28-4, 16-3 Big East) challenge the Providence Friars (20-12, 11-8 Big East) in the Big East Conference Tourney at Madison Square Garden. The game gets underway at 6:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 9, 2018.
Xavier is a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 151 points.
Providence Friars vs. Xavier Musketeers ATS Prediction
The Friars come in on a high note after topping the Creighton Bluejays in their last game, 72-68. The Friars held the Bluejays to an offensive rebounding percentage of 19.4 (below the 28.8 mark opponents have averaged against Providence this season). The Bluejays had a free throw rate of 0.203 (below the 0.234 mark opponents have averaged against Providence this season). Jalen Lindsey had a good outing for Providence, putting up 11 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Musketeers’ last matchup, they dismantled the St. John’s Red Storm, 88-60. The Musketeers held the Red Storm to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.2 (below their season average of 24.0) and had a free throw rate of 0.390 (above their season average of 0.318). Trevon Bluiett was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
The high-octane offense of Xavier will face off against the mid-tier defense of Providence. The Musketeers currently rank 11th in offensive efficiency, while the Friars are 174th in defensive efficiency. The Musketeers figure to have the edge on that side of the ball. Additionally, the Friars are among the NCAA’s elite at getting to the line, ranking 55th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.278). The Musketeers, meanwhile, rank 24th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.184).
Providence has a respectable 20-12 straight up (SU) record, but they struggle covering the spread (11-18 against the spread (ATS)). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Friars games, with 15 overs compared to 14 unders.
Meanwhile, Xavier owns records of 28-4 SU and 20-11 ATS. Games including the Musketeers tend to go over the projected point total (56.7 percent).
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Musketeers won the most recent matchup 84-74, but could not cover as 11-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 158 points, which was just 4 points above the projected point total of 154 points. The Musketeers knocked down 23 of their 26 free throws (88.5 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (53.3 vs. 37.9). Bluiett was the game’s leading scorer with 23 points.
Providence Friars vs. Xavier Musketeers ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Xavier, ATS Winner – Providence, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Xavier ranks 17th in rebounds allowed per game (31.0) while Providence ranks 177th (35.6).
The Friars rank 137th in three pointers allowed per game (21.3) while the Musketeers rank 284th (26.1).
Xavier ranks 18th in assists per game (16.8) while Providence ranks 136th (13.7).
The Friars average 7.0 steals per game, which ranks 64th in the nation. The Musketeers rank 163rd in steals allowed per game (6.7).
Providence ranks 88th in blocks per game (3.8) while Xavier ranks 142nd in blocks allowed per game (3.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Providence is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Xavier is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Friars have been outscored by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Providence has defeated opponents by an average of 1.3 points.
During their last five games, the Musketeers have scored an average of 81.0 points per game (3.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 73.6 points per game (0.9 below their season average).
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