The No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (30-2, 19-1 ACC) meet the No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (25-9, 14-7 ACC) in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tourney at Barclays Center. The game can be seen on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 10, 2018.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers ATS Prediction
In the Tar Heels’ last contest, they topped the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils, 74-69. North Carolina’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Duke. The Tar Heels had a rate of 14.3 (worse than their season average of 14.1), while the Blue Devils posted a mark of 21.9 (above their season average of 14.8). With 17 points on 8-for-18 shooting, Luke Maye was North Carolina’s high scorer.
The Cavaliers beat the No. 19 Clemson Tigers in their last contest, 64-58. The Cavaliers had 11 steals and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4 (above their season average of 27.5). With six points and 10 assists, Virginia’s Ty Jerome had a good performance.
Virginia should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Virginia ranks sixth in the NCAA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 14.4 percent), while North Carolina forces the 54th-fewest turnovers (16.6 percent). Moreover, the 22nd-ranked offense of the Tar Heels (offensive efficiency of 115.1) will go head-to-head against the second-ranked defense of the Cavaliers (defensive efficiency of 88.0).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Theo Pinson (17.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 2.0 steals) has been stellar for the Tar Heels while Jerome (15.2 points and 1.4 steals) has contributed greatly to the Cavaliers.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Devon Hall had 16 points and seven assists in the first matchup, in which the Cavaliers beat the Tar Heels 61-49. Virginia had a much better turnover percentage (16.2 vs. 24.4). North Carolina, meanwhile, did a terrific job of making free throws (9-11; 81.8 percent).
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers Free Pick
Basketball Pick: SU Winner – Virginia, ATS Winner – Virginia, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
North Carolina ranks first in rebounds per game (42.8) while Virginia ranks 261st (32.8).
The Cavaliers rank 70th in three pointers allowed per game (20.2) while the Tar Heels rank 290th (25.6).
Virginia ranks first in assists allowed per game (8.7) while North Carolina ranks 217th (14.6).
The Cavaliers rank 43rd in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while the Tar Heels rank 214th (4.8).
Virginia ranks second in steals allowed per game (3.9) while North Carolina ranks 123rd (6.2).
Bettings Trends:
The Tar Heels’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, down from 9.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Cavaliers have scored an average of 66.8 points per game (0.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 55.2 points per game (2.1 above their season average).
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