The Oklahoma City Thunder (39-29) challenge the Sacramento Kings (21-46) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, March 12, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
The Kings are trying to rebound after their 130-104 loss to the Denver Nuggets in their last matchup. Denver’s 20.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over Sacramento, who had a rate of 14.0. The Nuggets’ mark was below their season average of 26.0, while the Kings’ was below their season average of 21.7. Kosta Koufos played well for Sacramento, finishing with 14 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Thunder’s last game, they defeated the San Antonio Spurs, 104-94. The Thunder had a much better free throw rate (0.186 vs. 0.047) and held the Spurs to an offensive rebounding percentage of 13.6 (below their season average of 23.4). With 21 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists, Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook led the way with his 18th triple-double this year.
The offensive glass should be a huge advantage for Oklahoma City in this contest. The Thunder currently rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (28.0 percent), while Sacramento ranks 21st in defensive rebounding percentage (76.7 percent).
Sacramento holds records of 21-46 straight up (SU) and 30-33-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Kings’ 66 games with betting action, 35 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 39-29 SU and 27-40-1 ATS. Unlike Sacramento, games featuring the Thunder have a slight tendency to finish under the total (54.4 percent).
The Thunder lead the season series against the Kings two games to one, escaping with a close 110-107 victory the last time these teams met. Oklahoma City was unable to cover as an 8-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 217 points, which was just 2 points above the projected point total of 215 points. Converting at the free throw line was one of Oklahoma City’s biggest advantages. They were 20-24 (83.3 percent), while the Kings were 11-15 (73.3 percent). In the loss, Zach Randolph had a double-double with 29 points and 12 rebounds.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder Odds Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Sacramento is 15-15-3 ATS with 17 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
At home, Oklahoma City is 14-19-1 ATS with 19 unders and 15 overs.
Oklahoma City is 20-5 when they allow below 100 points, while Sacramento is 13-5.
The Kings are 15-19 when they score more than 100 points, while the Thunder are 35-15.
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in rebounds per game (45.1) while Sacramento ranks 28th (40.5).
The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (18.5) while the Kings rank 24th (15.4).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (8.9) while Sacramento ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points per game (14.8) while the Kings rank 23rd (10.0).
Oklahoma City ranks 11th in three pointers attempted per game (29.9) while Sacramento ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (31.8).
The Thunder rank first in second chance points per game (15.2) while the Kings rank 19th (11.6).
Oklahoma City ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while Sacramento ranks 25th (4.0).
The Kings are 26th in the NBA with 21.3 assists per game while the Thunder are 29th with 21.1 assists per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Sacramento is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Kings’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 7.4, down from 8.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 111.0 points per game (4.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.4 points per game (1.7 above their season average).
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