The Milwaukee Bucks (35-31) and the Memphis Grizzlies (18-48), who both like to play patient, will square off at FedExForum. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, March 12, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points with Milwaukee opening as a 7-point favorite.
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies Free Prediction
The Bucks will be hoping for a similar outcome after beating the New York Knicks in their last contest, 120-112. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Milwaukee’s largest advantages. They made 39 trips to the line, 25 more than New York. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way for Milwaukee, putting up 28 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.
The last time the Grizzlies played, they got blown out by the Dallas Mavericks, 114-80. Dallas made good use of their 35 trips to the free throw line, converting on 30 of them (85.7 percent). Memphis, on the other hand, was 13-17 (76.5 percent). Memphis’ JaMychal Green had 14 points and 10 rebounds in the game.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Memphis currently ranks 30th in possessions per game (96.5) and Milwaukee is 27th (97.1). Also, the Bucks, who rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.229), could get to the line a ton against the Grizzlies, who rank 30th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.262).
Milwaukee heads into the contest with records of 35-31 straight up (SU) and 27-34-5 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Bucks have a slight tendency to finish over the total (48.5 percent).
Meanwhile, Memphis owns records of 18-48 SU and 27-36-3 ATS. Vegas is known to set the total high when the Grizzlies are involved, as 38 of their 66 games have finished under the O/U total.
Jabari Parker has averaged 11.2 points over the last five games for Milwaukee.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 27 points and the Bucks defeated the Grizzlies 110-103, covering as 4-point favorites. He also had nine rebounds and seven assists. The game finished with a total of 213 points, which was 13.5 points above the projected point total of 199.5 points. The Bucks had a much better turnover percentage (8.8 vs. 14.1) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 23.5).
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies ATS Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Milwaukee is 16-13-2 ATS on the road with 15 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
Memphis is 14-19-1 ATS at home with 23 unders and 11 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Memphis is 11-11 and Milwaukee is 16-5.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Bucks are 29-15 and the Grizzlies are 13-18.
Milwaukee ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (9.3) while Memphis ranks 26th (13.9).
The Bucks rank fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while the Grizzlies rank 23rd (5.3).
Memphis ranks third in points allowed in the paint per game (41.4) while Milwaukee ranks 21st (46.2).
The Bucks rank fifth in steals per game (8.5) while the Grizzlies rank 21st (7.4).
Milwaukee ranks seventh in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while Memphis ranks 20th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
The Grizzlies rank fifth in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Bucks rank 15th (23.1).
Memphis ranks 22nd in second chance points per game (11.1) while Milwaukee ranks 26th (10.3).
The Grizzlies rank 24th in three pointers attempted per game (26.1) while the Bucks rank 26th (24.5).
Neither of these teams are great at rebounding the ball. Memphis is 27th in the league with 40.6 rebounds per game while Milwaukee is 29th with 39.5 rebounds per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Memphis is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.0, up from 0.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 93.2 points per game (5.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (3.2 above their season average).
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