The Golden State Warriors (52-17) visit Phoenix to take on the Suns (19-51) in a game that will likely be up-tempo. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Arizona at 10 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 17, 2018.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Prediction
The last time the Warriors played, they were beaten by the Sacramento Kings, 98-93. Sacramento’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Golden State. The Kings had a rate of 26.2 (above their season average of 21.6), while the Warriors posted a mark of 20.0. Golden State’s Draymond Green played well, putting up 14 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
The Suns got blown out by the Utah Jazz in their last game, 116-88. Utah’s 5.9 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Phoenix, who had a rate of 19.0. The Jazz’s mark was better than their season average of 13.4, while the Suns’ was above their season average of 13.2. Phoenix’s Josh Jackson put up 17 points and nine rebounds in the contest.
There could be plenty of transition offense in this battle that showcases two of the league’s more up-tempo teams. Phoenix currently ranks third in possessions per game (102.5) and Golden State is fifth (101.1). Moreover, the Warriors rank first in offensive efficiency (114.0), while the Suns rank 30th in defensive efficiency (111.2).
Golden State is 52-17 straight up (SU), but they have difficulty covering the spread (28-37-3 against the spread (ATS)). Vegas is extremely precise when setting the O/U total of Warriors games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Phoenix is 19-51 SU and 31-37-2 ATS. Of the Suns’ 70 games, 34 have finished over the total.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, the Suns lost 129-83, unable to cover as 16-point underdogs. Elfrid Payton led both teams with 29 points and also added eight rebounds and five assists. The game finished with a total of 212 points, which was 18.5 points below the projected point total of 230.5 points. The Warriors had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.646 vs. 0.363) and had a better turnover percentage (10.1 vs. 12.5).
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Suns, ATS Winner – Suns, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Golden State is 14-19-1 ATS on the road with 18 overs and 16 unders.
At home, Phoenix is 12-21-1 ATS with 17 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Golden State is 13-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Phoenix is 6-2.
In games where they score above 100 points, the Suns are 15-31 and the Warriors are 49-12.
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (20.3) while Phoenix ranks 29th in fast break points allowed per game (14.7).
The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.5) while the Suns rank 28th (5.9).
Golden State ranks first in assists per game (30.0) while Phoenix ranks 28th (21.0).
The Suns average 13.4 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Warriors rank last in second chance points allowed per game (13.9).
Golden State ranks seventh in rebounds allowed per game (42.0) while Phoenix ranks 29th (45.8).
The Warriors average 8.1 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Suns rank 28th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
Golden State ranks eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while Phoenix ranks 27th (14.9).
The Warriors average 44.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Suns rank 26th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5).
Golden State averages 29.6 three pointers per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Phoenix ranks 13th in three pointers allowed per game (29.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Golden State is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Warriors have been outscored by an average of 2.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Golden State has defeated opponents by an average of 7.8 points.
During their last five games, the Suns have scored an average of 100.0 points per game (4.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 121.4 points per game (7.7 above their season average).
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