Two of the league’s best at finding the net on the power play, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Tampa Bay Lightning meet at Amalie Arena in an Atlantic Division matchup. Fox Sports Sun will air the game, and the opening face-off takes place at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 20.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
Tampa Bay is 49-23 straight up (SU) and has earned 10.9 units for moneyline bettors this year. That win percentage, ranked first in the NHL so far in this young season, is a solid improvement compared to how the team performed during the 2016-17 season (42-40). Through 72 regular season contests, 45 of the team’s games have gone over the total, while 26 have gone under and just one has pushed. The team is 26-10 SU at home this year.
The Lightning come into the matchup with the second-strongest power-play unit in the NHL, as they have scored on 24.1 percent of their extra-man advantages this season. On the other hand, their penalty kill is ranked 26th overall, and they’ve successfully killed off 76.8 percent of all penalties.
As a collective unit, the Lightning have been penalized 4.0 times per game overall this season, 4.0 per game over their last five matchups total, and 4.0 per game over their last five home outings. The team’s had to stave off opposition power plays for 9.2 minutes per game over their last five home outings.
Averaging 29.5 saves per game with a .922 save percentage, Andrei Vasilevskiy (40-18-3) has been the primary option in goal for the Bolts this year. If head coach Jon Cooper decides to give him a breather, however, Tampa Bay could turn to Louis Domingue (6-10-10 record, .890 save percentage, 3.49 goals against average).
Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos will both be focal points for the Lightning. Kucherov (93 points) has tallied 36 goals and 57 assists and has recorded two or more points on 29 separate occasions this year. Stamkos has 27 goals and 57 assists to his name and has recorded at least one point in 49 contests.
On the other side of the rink, Toronto is 43-29 straight up (SU) and has netted moneyline bettors 6.3 units this year. A total of 36 of its contests have gone over the total, while 32 have gone under and just four have pushed. As an away team, the Maple Leafs are 18-19 SU.
The Maple Leafs have scored on 22.8 percent of their power play opportunities this year, a figure that places it in the top-five among NHL teams. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked ninth overall and it’s successfully killed off 82.3 percent of all penalties.
Toronto’s skaters have been whistled for penalties only 3.3 times per game in total this season, 3.2 per game over their past five games total, and 3.8 per game over their last five on the road. The team has had to stave off opponent power plays just 6.6 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Frederik Andersen (.919 save percentage and 2.79 goals against average) has been the primary option in goal for Toronto. Andersen is averaging 31.0 saves per game and has 35 wins, 23 losses, and five overtime losses to his credit.
For the visiting Maple Leafs, the offense will be coordinated by Mitchell Marner (19 goals, 41 assists) and William Nylander (15 goals, 37 assists).
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Free Picks
NHL Pick: SU Winner – Lightning, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Trends
Toronto has scored 3.4 goals per game overall this season, but is scoring 5.0 per contest over the team’s four-game winning streak.
Extra-man opportunities may be extremely important tonight. The Maple Leafs are 16-9 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 32-27 when they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes. The Lightning are 25-12 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 28-14 in games where total penalty minutes are in the single digits.
Three of Tampa Bay’s last ten games have gone to a shootout. The team is 3-0 in those games and 6-2 overall in shootouts this year.
The total has gone under in three of Tampa Bay’s last five games.
Tampa Bay has averaged 8.2 giveaways over its last five home games, right in line with its season average of 8.4 giveaways per game (ranked 9th).
Toronto skaters have averaged 9.0 giveaways over its last five home games, an improvement from its season average of 12.1 giveaways per game (ranked 28th).
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