The Chicago Bulls (24-46) clash against the Denver Nuggets (38-33) at United Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 21, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports Chicago.
Denver opened as a 9.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 222 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls Free Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after their 149-141 loss to the Miami Heat in their last game. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Heat had a rate of 0.647 (above their season average of 0.519), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.550. Nikola Jokic was the top scorer from either team with 34 points on 12-for-21 shooting.
The last time the Bulls played, they were blown out by the New York Knicks, 110-92. New York’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Chicago. The Knicks had a rate of 0.505 (below their season average of 0.510), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.375 (below their season average of 0.501). Chicago’s Bobby Portis had 16 points and seven rebounds in the game.
Chicago may have trouble getting to the foul line in this matchup. The Bulls rank 29th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.167, while Denver ranks fifth in FTA rate allowed (0.175). Additionally, the Nuggets are among the NBA’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking third in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent). The Bulls, however, rank second at securing defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 80.6 percent.
Denver comes into the game with records of 38-33 straight up (SU) and 31-37-3 against the spread (ATS). Nuggets games have finished over the projected point total 50.7 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, Chicago owns records of 24-46 SU and 36-31-3 ATS. Similarly to Denver, just over half of Bulls games have finished over the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jokic (19.2 points, 10.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.2 blocks) has been stellar for the Nuggets while Portis (14.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 1.6 steals) has contributed greatly to the Bulls.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Will Barton scored a game-high 37 points in the first game, in which the Nuggets defeated the Bulls 111-110 but could not cover as 10-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 221 points, which was 11.5 points above the projected point total of 209.5 points. Denver did a fantastic job of getting and making free throws (23-31; 74.2 percent). Chicago, on the other hand, had a better effective field goal percentage (0.591 vs. 0.530).
Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls Betting Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 12-20-2 ATS on the road with 17 overs and 17 unders.
At home, Chicago is 19-14-2 ATS with 19 unders and 16 overs.
Denver is 13-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Chicago is 6-6.
The Bulls are 22-22 when they score over 100 points, while the Nuggets are 32-23.
Denver ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.3) while Chicago ranks 26th (45.8).
The Nuggets rank fifth in assists per game (24.8) while the Bulls rank 27th in assists allowed per game (25.5).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.3) while Chicago ranks 25th (41.7).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (13.9) while the Bulls rank 24th (11.3).
Denver ranks ninth in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while Chicago ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (31.7).
The Bulls rank third in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Nuggets rank 20th (8.0).
Denver ranks ninth in points off turnovers per game (17.3) while Chicago ranks 26th (14.9).
The Nuggets rank 17th in blocks per game (4.7) while the Bulls rank last (3.7).
Chicago ranks 14th in fast break points per game (11.8) while Denver ranks 19th in fast break points allowed per game (12.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Chicago is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.8, up from 1.0 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bulls have scored an average of 109.4 points per game (5.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.6 points per game (4.1 above their season average).
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