The Utah Jazz (40-31) will try to lengthen their 11-game road winning streak in a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks (22-49) at American Airlines Center. The game begins at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 22, 2018.
Utah is a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 198 points.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The last time the Jazz played, they were beaten by the Atlanta Hawks, 99-94. Atlanta’s 11.3 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Utah, who had a rate of 13.8. The Hawks’ mark was better than their season average of 13.8. Rudy Gobert had a good performance for Utah, finishing with 15 points and 16 rebounds.
The Mavericks fell to the New Orleans Pelicans in their last matchup, 115-105. New Orleans’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Dallas. The Pelicans had a rate of 22.5 (above their season average of 19.8), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 19.6. Dirk Nowitzki put together a good game for Dallas, leading the team in scoring with 19 points on 7-for-13 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Dallas ranks 25th in possessions per game (97.6) and Utah is 28th (97.2).
Utah comes into the contest with records of 40-31 straight up (SU) and 38-33 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Jazz’s games have finished under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 22-49 SU and 36-35 ATS. Coinciding with Utah, games including the Mavericks have gone under the total 52.1 percent of the time.
Several players have been playing well over the last five games for Utah. Gobert has led the way, averaging 17.6 points, 12.8 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per game. Donovan Mitchell (20.6 points, 4.0 assists and 1.6 steals) and Joe Ingles (16.8 points, 5.4 assists and 1.2 steals) have also been solid.
The Jazz have won both games against the Mavericks this season, including a seven-point victory in their last matchup. Utah was unable to cover as a 10-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 187 points, which was 17.5 points below the projected point total of 204.5 points. The Jazz knocked down 20 of their 26 free throws (76.9 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (18.8 vs. 12.5). Mitchell was the game’s top overall scorer with 25 points.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Utah is 18-17 ATS on the road with 18 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 17-19 ATS with 19 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Utah is 28-6 and Dallas is 15-11.
When reaching 100 points, the Mavericks are 16-25 and the Jazz are 31-11.
Utah ranks third in fast break points allowed per game (9.9) while Dallas ranks 27th (14.2).
The Jazz rank third in steals per game (8.7) while the Mavericks rank 24th (7.1).
Utah ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Dallas ranks 26th (45.4).
The Jazz rank ninth in blocks per game (5.0) while the Mavericks rank 27th (3.7).
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.0) while Utah ranks 17th (16.6).
The Jazz rank first in assists allowed per game (19.9) while the Mavericks rank 14th (23.2).
Utah ranks fifth in three pointers allowed per game (26.6) while Dallas ranks 17th (29.5).
The Jazz rank 21st in points in the paint per game (43.4) while the Mavericks rank last (38.8).
Utah is 26th in the NBA with 10.6 second chance points per game while Dallas is 27th with 10.5 second chance points per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 15.4, up from 3.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 103.6 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (5.4 above their season average).
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