The Indiana Pacers (42-31) clash against the Miami Heat (39-34) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 25, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 207 points with Indiana opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers Betting Prediction
The last time the Heat played, they were topped by the Oklahoma City Thunder, 105-99. Oklahoma City’s 26.7 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Miami, who had a rate of 17.0. The Thunder’s mark was below their season average of 27.7, while the Heat’s was below the 22.6 mark opponents have averaged against Oklahoma City this season. Miami’s Goran Dragic had a good outing, recording 20 points and five assists.
The Pacers defeated the Los Angeles Clippers in their last contest, 109-104. Indiana out-rebounded Los Angeles. The Pacers had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. six) and total rebounds (41 vs. 33). Bojan Bogdanovic was the game’s leading scorer with 28 points on 12-for-18 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams clash. Indiana currently ranks 23rd in possessions per game (98.1) and Miami is 24th (97.8).
Miami comes into the game with records of 39-34 straight up (SU) and 38-31-4 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Heat’s games have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Indiana is 42-31 SU and 41-32 ATS. Games including the Pacers tend to go under the total (60.3 percent).
The Heat have won two out of three against the Pacers this season, including an eight-point victory in their last matchup. Miami covered as a 4-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 220 points, which was 17.5 points above the projected point total of 202.5 points. Miami made 13 of its 30 three pointers (43.3 percent). Indiana, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.9 vs. 15.4). Hassan Whiteside put up a double-double in the victory with 16 points and 15 rebounds.
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Pacers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 23-13-2 ATS on the road with 20 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
At home, Indiana is 22-16 ATS with 23 unders, 14 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Indiana is 25-3 and Miami is 23-6.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Heat are 28-16 and the Pacers are 34-15.
Indiana ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.8) while Miami ranks 28th (8.7).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (26.1) while the Pacers rank 23rd (30.5).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Indiana ranks 25th (4.2).
The Pacers rank second in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while the Heat rank 19th (16.2).
Indiana ranks third in steals per game (8.8) while Miami ranks 19th (7.5).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while the Pacers rank 12th (22.7).
Indiana ranks 19th in second chance points per game (11.9) while Miami ranks 25th (11.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Miami is 3-1-1 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
Indiana is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.0, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Pacers have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (3.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.0 points per game (1.2 below their season average).
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