Air Canada Centre will be the site for a divisional matchup as the Buffalo Sabres visit Toronto to meet the Maple Leafs. The match will get going at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, March 26, and fans at home are able to catch the game live on MSG Western New York.
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds
Buffalo (+250) is playing the role of underdog to Toronto (-300) and the oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at an even 6 goals (-105 for the over, -115 for the under).
Earning moneyline bettors 7.8 units, the Maple Leafs are 45-30 straight up (SU) overall thus far. That winning percentage, the third-best in the Atlantic Division in this young season, is a welcome improvement over the 40-42 record from the 2016-17 season campaign. Through 75 regular season outings, 39 of the team’s games have gone over the total, while 32 have gone under and just four have pushed. This season, the team’s 26-10 SU at home.
Toronto’s been able to convert on 23.2 percent of its power play chances this season, a figure that’s good enough for fifth-best in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked ninth overall, and it’s successfully killed off 82.5 percent of all penalties.
As a collective unit, Toronto has been penalized just 3.3 times per game overall this season, and 2.2 per game over its last five outings at home. The team has been forced to kill penalties for just 7.3 minutes per game over its last 10 outings, overall.
Averaging 30.8 saves per game with a .918 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (37-24-5) has been the top goalkeeper for the Maple Leafs this season. If they choose to give him a breather, however, head coach Mike Babcock might roll with Curtis McElhinney (10-6-6 record, .935 save percentage, 2.09 goals against average).
The Leafs will continue to rely on leadership out of Mitchell Marner and William Nylander. Marner (64 points) has tallied 20 goals and 44 assists and has recorded multiple points on 16 separate occasions this year. Nylander has 17 goals and 37 assists to his name and has recorded at least one point in 40 games.
On the other bench, Buffalo is 23-52 straight up (SU) and has lost 19.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline this year. Through 75 regular season contests, 37 of its games have gone under the total, while 33 have gone over and just five have pushed. Buffalo’s 12-24 SU as the road team this season.
Buffalo has converted on just 17.1 percent of its power play chances this year, a figure that’s ranked 25th in the NHL. On the other hand, its penalty kill unit is ranked 23rd overall and it’s successfully killed off 78.1 percent of all penalties.
Buffalo’s skaters have been whistled for penalties 3.5 times per game in total this season, and 2.4 per game over their past five games. The team has been forced to kill penalties just 6.5 minutes per game over their last 10 outings.
Robin Lehner (2.99 goals against average and .909 save percentage) has been the primary option in goal for Buffalo. Lehner is averaging 26.9 saves per game and has 14 wins, 38 losses, and nine overtime losses to his credit.
Leading the offensive attack for the visiting Sabres will be Jack Eichel (22 goals, 32 assists) and Ryan O’Reilly (20 goals, 33 assists).
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs Free Picks
Free Pick: SU Winner – Maple Leafs, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Trends
The total has gone over in four of Toronto’s last five games.
Toronto’s attempted 32.1 shots per game overall this season (ranked 16th in the NHL), and 34.3 across their last 10 games.
Penalties and power plays could have a key role in the outcome of this game. The Sabres are 8-21 in games where they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 19-36 when they’re in the penalty box for fewer than 10 total minutes. The Maple Leafs are 17-10 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 33-28 when total penalty minutes are in the single digits.
Toronto is 7-2 in games decided by a shootout this season while Buffalo is 1-2 in shootouts.
Toronto is ranked 7th in the league this season with 8.3 takeaways per game. That figure’s trended upward lately, as it has forced 8.9 takeaways over its last 10 games and 8.8 takeaways over its last five.
Buffalo has scored 2.3 goals per game overall this year, but is down to 0.5 goals per contest over its last four games (0-4 SU over that span).
Buffalo has averaged 5.5 takeaways per game (ranked 30th in the league).
Toronto could have an advantage if it’s a close one late. The team’s 23-11 in games decided by one goal, while Buffalo is only 10-22 in such games.
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