Cleveland is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 218.5 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The last time the Cavaliers played, they beat the Brooklyn Nets, 121-114. Cleveland’s 26.2 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Brooklyn, who had a mark of 15.6. The Cavaliers’ mark was above their season average of 19.8, while the Nets’ was below their season average of 21.7. Cleveland was lifted by LeBron James, who was the top scorer from either team with 37 points on 14-for-19 shooting.
The Heat fell to the Indiana Pacers in their last outing, 113-107. Indiana’s offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over Miami. The Pacers had a rate of 23.8 (above their season average of 22.6), while the Heat posted a mark of 14.6 (below their season average of 21.6). With 12 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, Kelly Olynyk had a good game for Miami.
Getting to the line could be scarce for Miami in this showdown. The Heat rank 26th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.174, while Cleveland ranks second in FTA rate allowed (0.169).
Cleveland has a solid 44-29 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 26-46-1 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Cavaliers have a slight tendency to finish over the total (52.1 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 39-35 SU and 38-32-4 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Heat games, with an even split between overs and unders.
James has averaged 34.0 points, 10.8 assists, 10.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks over the last five games for Cleveland.
The Cavaliers have emerged victorious in both matchups against the Heat this year, including a narrow 91-89 victory the last time these teams met. Cleveland was unable to cover as a 3-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 180 points, which was 37.5 points below the projected point total of 217.5 points. One of Cleveland’s largest strengths was getting to the charity stripe. They had 38 free throw attempts, while Miami had 25. James put up a double-double in the victory with 24 points and 11 rebounds.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Cavaliers, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Cleveland is 16-21 ATS with 20 overs and 17 unders.
At home, Miami is 15-18-2 ATS with 17 unders, 16 overs and 2 pushes.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Cleveland is 15-2 and Miami is 23-6.
When reaching 100 points, the Cavaliers are 43-17 and the Heat are 28-17.
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.1) while Cleveland ranks 29th (31.9).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while the Cavaliers rank 28th (25.8).
Miami ranks eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while Cleveland ranks 27th (4.0).
The Cavaliers rank 13th in fast break points per game (12.7) while the Heat rank 28th (8.8).
Miami ranks 11th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.6) while Cleveland ranks 25th (46.9).
The Heat rank 19th in steals per game (7.5) while the Cavaliers rank 26th (7.0).
Miami averages 43.0 rebounds per game, which ranks 18th in the league. Cleveland ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (43.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Cleveland is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Miami is 3-1-1 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push over their last five games.
The Cavaliers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (9.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.6 points per game (6.5 above their season average).
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