It will be a battle between Northwest Division opponents when the Oklahoma City Thunder (44-32) welcome the Denver Nuggets (40-35) to Chesapeake Energy Arena. The game can be seen on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, March 30, 2018.
Oklahoma City is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 222 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Prediction
The Nuggets are hoping for a better outcome after their 114-110 loss to the Toronto Raptors in their last game. Toronto’s 8.6 turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver, who had a mark of 10.4. The Raptors’ mark was better than their season average of 11.6. Nikola Jokic was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points on 11-for-21 shooting.
In the Thunder’s last game, they fell to the San Antonio Spurs, 103-99. One of San Antonio’s largest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They made 30 trips to the line, while Oklahoma City went 21 times. Oklahoma City’s Paul George put together a solid game, leading both teams in scoring with 26 points on 9-for-20 shooting.
The prolific offense of Oklahoma City (ninth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 108.0) will face off against the mid-tier defense of Denver (25th in the league with a defensive efficiency of 109.5). The Thunder figure to have the edge on that end of the court. It could also be an error-filled game for the offense of the Nuggets, which ranks 24th in ball security (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent). They’ll be going up against the top-notch defense of the Thunder, which forces the most turnovers in the NBA (15.3 percent).
Denver comes into the game with records of 40-35 straight up (SU) and 34-38-3 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Nuggets’ games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City owns records of 44-32 SU and 30-43-2 ATS. Unlike Denver, just over half of Thunder games have finished under the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jamal Murray (19.4 points, 4.2 assists and 1.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Nuggets while Steven Adams (19.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Thunder.
The Nuggets lead the season series against the Thunder two games to one, escaping with a close 127-124 victory the last time these teams met. Denver covered as a 1-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 251 points, which was 32.5 points above the projected point total of 218.5 points. The Nuggets’ 22.5 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest advantage over the Thunder, who had a rate of 20.9. Jokic played a huge role in the victory, recording a a triple-double with 29 points, 14 assists and 13 rebounds.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Denver is 15-21-2 ATS on the road with 19 overs, 18 unders and 1 push.
Oklahoma City is 15-21-2 ATS at home with 22 unders and 16 overs.
Oklahoma City is 21-5 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Denver is 13-2.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Thunder are 40-16 and the Nuggets are 34-25.
Oklahoma City averages 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks first in the league. Denver ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Nuggets rank fifth in assists per game (25.0) while the Thunder rank 28th (21.2).
Denver averages 30.9 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Oklahoma City ranks 26th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6).
The Thunder average 9.0 steals per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 17th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
Denver ranks second in second chance points allowed per game (10.6) while Oklahoma City ranks 17th (12.9).
The Thunder average 14.9 fast break points per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 19th in fast break points allowed per game (12.6).
Oklahoma City ranks 14th in points in the paint per game (44.2) while Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
The Thunder rank eighth in blocks per game (5.1) while the Nuggets rank 17th in blocks allowed per game (5.0).
Oklahoma City ranks fifth in rebounds per game (44.8) while Denver ranks 12th (44.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push.
Oklahoma City is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 1.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 108.0 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (3.0 above their season average).
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