NCAAF Picks: Letdown was the operative word for the 2014 Texas A&M Aggies as their huge opening night blowout win at South Carolina proved to be a tease instead of a promise. But last week changed perceptions yet again as the Aggies scored a shocking and impressive 41-38 win at Auburn as 23.5 point dogs to reaffirm their status as a top tier SEC program. The Missouri Tigers have again maintained contender status in the inconsistent SEC East Division despite an offense that has been downright anemic for most of the season.
The Texas A&M Aggies will host the Missouri Tigers at Kyle Field on Saturday with coverage on SEC Network starting at 7:30 PM ET. Texas A&M opened as a 5.5-point favorite
Men of Kyle
Texas A&M is 7-3 straight up, 4-6 against the spread, and 4-6 under the total. The Aggies have won two games in a row with freshman QB Kyle Allen, who had an outstanding performance last week passing for 277 yards and a 4-1 TD-INT ratio. Allen has played in place of suspended Kenny “Thrill” Hill and is likely to keep the job. To put it another way the thrill is gone. The Aggies defense remains a concern that ranks 93rd in the nation.
Offensive Tigers
Mizzou is 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 3-6 under the total. Mizzou is coming off a bye week that followed a 20-10 home payout over Kentucky. The Tigers rank 116th in the nation for total offense but a solid 15th for scoring defense.
Our Pick
Mizzou has been one of the better betting values on the board in any sport as a road team. The Tigers have paid out in 11 out of their last 13 road match-ups with nine out of their last 11 away games going over the total.
Texas A&M on the other had has seen their betting value erode at Kyle Field. The Aggies have covered the spread in just one out of their last seven home games with six out of their last eight home tilts going under the total. The possibility of a letdown also lingers for this one.
Missouri has paid out in three out of their last four games against the Aggies with two out of the last three meetings going over the total. Mizzou has covered the spread in four out of their last six visits to Kyle Field with the last two meetings at Texas A&M between the Tigers and Aggies going over the total. Last year Mizzou took apart Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel 28-21 for a payout as 3.5 point chalks.
We’ll call for Mizzou and their superior road board value and defense in this one.
