The Denver Nuggets (41-35) meet the Milwaukee Bucks (41-35) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 1, 2018, and will air on Altitude 2 Sports.
Denver opened as a 4-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 223.5 points.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
The last time the Bucks played, they beat the Los Angeles Lakers, 124-122. Milwaukee’s 10.1 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Los Angeles, who had a mark of 14.6. The Bucks’ mark was better than their season average of 12.5. With 39 points on 15-for-24 shooting, Eric Bledsoe was the game’s high scorer.
The Nuggets won a close one over the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last contest, 126-125. Converting at the free throw line was one of Denver’s biggest strengths. They were 18-21 (85.7 percent), while the Thunder were just 15-27 (55.6 percent). With 23 points, 16 rebounds and six assists, Nikola Jokic played well for Denver.
It could be a mistake-prone game for the Denver offense. Denver ranks 24th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent), while the ball-hawking defense of Milwaukee forces the third-most turnovers in the NBA (14.9 percent). Also, the Bucks rank fifth in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.222), while the Nuggets rank fifth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.172).
Milwaukee holds records of 41-35 straight up (SU) and 32-39-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bucks’ 76 games, 41 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 41-35 SU and 35-38-3 ATS. Of the Nuggets’ 76 games, 39 have finished over the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Bledsoe (17.8 points, 5.8 assists and 1.4 steals) has been stellar for the Bucks while Jamal Murray (19.2 points, 4.2 assists and 1.4 steals) has made great contributions to the Nuggets.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Jokic notched a triple-double. He had 30 points, 17 assists and 15 rebounds and the Nuggets, who were 2-point underdogs, beat the Bucks 134-123. The game finished with a total of 257 points, which was 42.5 points above the projected point total of 214.5 points. Denver made 24 of its 40 three pointers (60.0 percent). Milwaukee, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.7 vs. 21.6).
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Milwaukee is 20-16-2 ATS with 21 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Denver is 19-17-1 ATS at home with 19 overs and 18 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Milwaukee is 16-5 and Denver is 13-2.
The Nuggets are 35-25 when they score above 100 points, while the Bucks are 35-18.
Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.4) while Denver ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
The Nuggets rank third in second chance points per game (13.8) while the Bucks rank 27th (10.4).
Denver ranks 10th in rebounds per game (44.3) while Milwaukee ranks last (39.4).
The Nuggets rank seventh in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Bucks rank 25th (24.7).
Denver ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while Milwaukee ranks 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
The Bucks rank third in fast break points allowed per game (9.9) while the Nuggets rank 20th (12.8).
Milwaukee averages 8.8 steals per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Denver ranks 18th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
The Bucks rank fourth in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while the Nuggets rank 16th (5.0).
Milwaukee averages 23.1 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Denver ranks 26th in assists allowed per game (25.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Denver is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs, 1 under and 1 push over their last five games.
The Bucks have outscored opponents by an average of 4.0 points in their last five games. On the season, Milwaukee has been defeated by an average of 0.2 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 116.6 points per game (6.6 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.8 points per game (4.0 above their season average).
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