The New Orleans Pelicans (43-33) go head-to-head against the Oklahoma City Thunder (44-33) at Smoothie King Center. The game can be seen on NBATV at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 1, 2018.
Oklahoma City opened as a 1-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 226 points.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans ATS Prediction
The last time the Thunder played, they were beaten by the Denver Nuggets, 126-125. One of Denver’s largest strengths was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 18-21 (85.7 percent), while the Thunder were just 15-27 (55.6 percent). Russell Westbrook was Oklahoma City’s high scorer with 33 points on 12-for-32 shooting.
The Pelicans lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last outing, 107-102. Cleveland’s free throw rate was their biggest advantage over New Orleans. The Cavaliers had a rate of 0.122 (below their season average of 0.212), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 0.056 (below their season average of 0.185). New Orleans’ Nikola Mirotic finished with 20 points and seven rebounds in the game.
This contest should be a showdown of conflicting styles. New Orleans has preferred to play up-tempo (second in possessions per game), while Oklahoma City has been slower-paced (17th in possessions per game).
Oklahoma City holds records of 44-33 straight up (SU) and 30-45-2 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Thunder have finished under the total 54.5 percent of the time.
Meanwhile, New Orleans owns records of 43-33 SU and 40-35-1 ATS. Vegas is known to set the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 57.9 percent of their games have finished over the O/U total.
The Pelicans have won both contests against the Thunder this season, including a 114-100 victory the last time these teams met. New Orleans covered as a 6-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 214 points, which was 10.5 points below the projected point total of 224.5 points. New Orleans had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.583 vs. 0.428). Oklahoma City, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (29.4 vs. 11.9). Anthony Davis recorded a double-double with 43 points and 10 rebounds.
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans Free Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Oklahoma City is 15-23 ATS with 20 unders and 18 overs.
At home, New Orleans is 17-20-1 ATS with 26 overs and 12 unders.
New Orleans is 10-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 21-5.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Pelicans are 40-21 and the Thunder are 40-17.
Oklahoma City ranks first in second chance points per game (15.1) while New Orleans ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (26.4) while the Thunder rank 27th (21.3).
Oklahoma City averages 15.1 fast break points per game, which ranks third in the league. New Orleans ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (14.3).
The Thunder rank first in points off turnovers per game (18.7) while the Pelicans rank 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.0) while New Orleans ranks 20th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
The Thunder rank eighth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.3) while the Pelicans rank 26th (47.7).
Oklahoma City ranks sixth in rebounds per game (44.9) while New Orleans ranks 24th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
The Thunder average 30.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Pelicans rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (30.8).
New Orleans averages 5.9 blocks per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Oklahoma City is 0-4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Thunder have been outscored by an average of 0.6 points in their last five games. For the season, Oklahoma City has defeated opponents by an average of 3.1 points.
During their last five games, the Pelicans have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (7.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 109.0 points per game (1.9 below their season average).
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