The Los Angeles Clippers (42-38) take on the New Orleans Pelicans (46-34) at Staples Center. The game will air on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Monday, April 9, 2018.
New Orleans opened as a 4.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 228.5 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers ATS Prediction
The Pelicans will be hoping for a similar result after beating the Golden State Warriors in their last contest, 126-120. New Orleans’ free throw rate was their largest strength over Golden State. The Pelicans had a rate of 0.195 (above their season average of 0.184), while the Warriors posted a mark of 0.078 (below their season average of 0.198). With 34 points on 13-for-24 shooting, Anthony Davis led New Orleans in scoring.
In the Clippers’ last matchup, they were blown out by the Denver Nuggets, 134-115. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was their largest strength over Los Angeles. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.694 (above their season average of 0.536), while the Clippers posted a mark of 0.529. With 16 points and 17 rebounds, DeAndre Jordan put together a solid game for Los Angeles.
Los Angeles appears to have an edge on the offensive glass in this contest. The Clippers are among the league’s elite on the offensive glass, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage at 23.5 percent. Meanwhile, New Orleans ranks 20th in the NBA at corralling defensive rebounds with a defensive rebounding percentage of 76.8 percent.
New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 46-34 straight up (SU) and 43-36-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 58.8 percent of their games have ended over the total.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles owns records of 42-38 SU and 42-37-1 ATS. Games including the Clippers have a slight tendency to finish over the total (53.8 percent).
The Pelicans lead the season series against the Clippers two games to one, including a five-point victory in their last matchup. New Orleans covered as a 2-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 237 points, which was just 1.5 points above the projected point total of 235.5 points. New Orleans had a better turnover percentage (6.7 vs. 10.5). Los Angeles, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (19.2 vs. 16.1). Davis put up a double-double in the victory with 41 points and 13 rebounds.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Clippers, ATS Winner – Clippers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 25-15 ATS on the road with 20 overs and 20 unders.
Los Angeles is 18-21 ATS at home with 23 overs, 15 unders and 1 push.
When holding opponents below 100 points, New Orleans is 11-2 and Los Angeles is 13-2.
When scoring over 100 points, the Clippers are 40-25 and the Pelicans are 43-22.
Los Angeles averages 13.8 second chance points per game, which ranks fourth in the league. New Orleans ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
The Pelicans rank fourth in fast break points per game (14.9) while the Clippers rank 29th in fast break points allowed per game (15.3).
New Orleans ranks third in blocks per game (5.9) while Los Angeles ranks 27th in blocks allowed per game (5.6).
The Clippers average 51.8 points in the paint per game, which ranks third in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.5).
New Orleans averages 26.6 assists per game, which ranks third in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 24th in assists allowed per game (24.4).
The Pelicans rank ninth in steals per game (7.9) while the Clippers rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
Los Angeles ranks 16th in rebounds per game (43.7) while New Orleans ranks 24th in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
The Clippers rank 20th in three pointers allowed per game (30.1) while the Pelicans rank 25th (30.9).
New Orleans averages 16.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 19th in the league. Los Angeles ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.6, up from 0.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Clippers have scored an average of 104.6 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 115.4 points per game (6.6 above their season average).
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