The Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the Cincinnati Reds at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Ohio is in line to televise this NL showdown.
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Philadelphia (-170) is favored against Cincinnati (+160) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 8 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds sitting at -135 for the Reds +1.5 runs and +115 for the Phillies -1.5.
The Phillies are 4-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. The team’s lost 3.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.9 units against the spread (ATS). The Reds are 2-7 SU and have gone 3-5 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline in this young season and 3.4 units ATS.
Phillies games have had an over/under record of 4-3-1 so far in 2018. Cincinnati has an over/under record of 4-4.
The Reds have lost 1.7 units and are 2-4 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in three of those games, as opposed to three that’ve gone under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 5.0 units and are 0-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, as opposed to two which went under the total.
Right-hander Homer Bailey (0-2, 4.22 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Reds. Bailey started 18 games last year and finished the season 6-9 overall with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP.
The Phillies have tabbed righty Aaron Nola (0-0, 2.61 ERA) as their starter. Nola recorded 184 strikeouts over 168 innings last year (with only 49 walks). Nola finished the season 12-11 overall with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has given up 5.0 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.09, a WHIP of 1.41 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.4. The bullpen has a 4.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.1 K/9.
The Philadelphia hitters are putting up 5.3 runs per outing, including 7.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .268/.365/.488 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.
Left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the Phillies’ hitters so far. Hoskins is hitting .429/.553/.821 with 12 hits, nine RBIs and seven runs scored, and Hernandez is batting .313 with 10 hits, two RBIs and six runs.
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 6.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.96 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 5.96 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 5.97, along with a K-per-9 of 7.11.
Reds hitters have slashed .242/.325/.352 on their way to 3.3 runs scored per game this season, including over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Cincinnati’s hitters have been led by third baseman Eugenio Suarez and catcher Tucker Barnhart. Suarez is slashing .296/.424/.630 with eight hits, seven RBIs and five runs scored, while Barnhart (.304/.429/.522) is up to seven hits, two RBIs and three runs scored.
Suarez seemed to have a little trouble hitting righty pitching on the road last year. Across 250 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .233/.340/.300 (compared to his overall season line of .260/.367/.461).
Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The Phillies went 2-4 SU against the Reds last season.
The Reds have lost four of their last five games SU while the Phillies have won three of their last four SU.
The Reds’ bullpen managed 1.33 ERA against the Phillies last year.
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