The Baltimore Orioles will be taking on their AL East nemesis Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The action will begin at 1:05 p.m. ET and New England Sports Network will be showing the game.
Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox Odds
Boston (-160) is the favorite against Baltimore (+150) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9.5 runs (-115 for the under and -105 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -145 for the Orioles +1.5 runs and +125 for the Red Sox -1.5.
The Red Sox are 11-2 SU and 5-7 ATS. The team’s gained 7.3 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 1.9 units against the spread (ATS). Boston has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Orioles are 5-9 SU and have gone 6-7 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 1.0 unit for moneyline gamblers this year and 1.1 units ATS. Baltimorehas covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.
Boston games have an over/under record of 6-5-1 so far in 2018. Orioles games have gone under eight times, gone over four times and pushed on one occasion.
The Orioles have lost 2.0 units and are 3-6 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in two of those games, compared to seven that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Red Sox have netted 6.3 units and are 5-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in six of those games, compared to four which went under the total.
Alex Cobb will get the nod for the visiting Orioles. The right-handed Cobb started 29 games last year and finished the season 12-10 overall with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He made five starts against the Red Sox in 2017 and put together a 3-1 record against them with a 3.38 ERA and 18 strikeouts.
The BoSox will put the ball in the hands of righty Hector Velazquez (1-0, 3.12 ERA), who started 3 games last year and finished the season 3-1 overall with a 2.92 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
As a unit, Boston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.3 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 1.97, a WHIP of 1.03 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.4. The bullpen has a 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. In 11 divisional games, Red Sox starters have an ERA of 2.03 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.31.
Boston’s hitters are putting up 5.8 runs per contest, including 5.9 per game against divisional foes and 8.4 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .297/.386/.477 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Right fielder Mookie Betts and shortstop Xander Bogaerts have led the Red Sox offense this year. Betts is slashing .360/.450/.620 with 18 hits, 10 RBIs and 15 runs scored, and the line for Bogaerts stands at .368/.400/.711 with 14 hits, nine RBIs and seven runs scored.
For the visiting squad, Baltimore’s pitchers have allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.01 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and 8.49 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.13, along with a K-per-9 of 8.41.
The Orioles offense has slashed .220/.294/.345 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Manny Machado and Pedro Alvarez have led Baltimore’s hitters. Machado is slashing .316/.409/.544 with 18 hits, eight RBIs and six runs scored, while Alvarez (.250/.444/.500) is up to five hits, five RBIs and four runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .260/.311/.473, Machado did not do as well hitting against righties on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .227/.264/.387 across 254 such plate appearances.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Red Sox, ATS Winner – Orioles, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The Red Sox have won 11 of their last 12 games SU.
Boston has posted 26.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 28.8 over its last five.
The Orioles have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Red Sox have hit nine over their last 10.
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