The Boston Celtics meet the Milwaukee Bucks at TD Garden to open the First Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 15, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Boston is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 201.5 points.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Free Prediction
The two teams have split their four matchups this season. The Bucks won the most recent matchup 106-102, but were unable to cover as 5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 208 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 203 points. The Bucks had a better effective field goal percentage (0.576 vs. 0.512) and had a better turnover percentage (14.5 vs. 15.7). Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded a double-double with 29 points and 11 rebounds.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the league’s slowest-paced teams go head-to-head. Boston ranks 23rd in possessions per game (98.1) and Milwaukee is 24th (98.0).
Milwaukee comes into the game with records of 44-38 straight up (SU) and 35-42-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bucks’ 82 games, 46 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Boston owns records of 55-27 SU and 48-30-4 ATS. Games featuring the Celtics have a slight tendency to finish over the total (51.2 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jabari Parker (18.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals) has been great for the Bucks while Greg Monroe (14.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.2 steals) has made great contributions to the Celtics.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics Odds Pick
NBA Pick: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Celtics, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Milwaukee is 22-17-2 ATS with 24 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Boston is 20-17-4 ATS at home with 23 overs and 18 unders.
When allowing under 100 points, Milwaukee is 17-5 and Boston is 36-5.
The Bucks are 38-20 when they score more than 100 points, while the Celtics are 42-13.
Milwaukee ranks seventh in points in the paint per game (47.4) while Boston ranks 29th (39.8).
The Celtics rank eighth in rebounds per game (44.5) while the Bucks rank last (39.8).
Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.3) while Boston ranks 24th (15.2).
The Bucks rank second in steals per game (8.8) while the Celtics rank 22nd (7.4).
Milwaukee ranks sixth in fast break points per game (14.6) while Boston ranks 26th (9.5).
The Celtics rank 10th in three pointers attempted per game (30.4) while the Bucks rank 25th (24.7).
Boston ranks fourth in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while Milwaukee ranks 19th (13.1).
The Celtics rank fourth in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Bucks rank 18th (23.6).
Milwaukee ranks fifth in blocks per game (5.4) while Boston ranks 18th (4.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Boston is 1-3-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Celtics have scored an average of 101.2 points per game (2.8 below their season average) and allowed an average of 104.4 points per game (4.0 above their season average).
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