The Houston Rockets go head-to-head against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Toyota Center to open the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 15, 2018, and will air on TNT.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 216 points with Houston set as an 11.5-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Free Prediction
The Rockets have emerged victorious in all four matchups against the Timberwolves this year, including a nine-point victory in their last matchup. Houston covered as a 7.5-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 249 points, which was 26 points above the projected point total of 223 points. The Rockets made 27 of their 36 free throws (75.0 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.654 vs. 0.581). James Harden recorded a double-double with 34 points and 12 assists.
The productive offense of Houston will clash against the porous defense of Minnesota. The Rockets rank first in offensive efficiency, while the Timberwolves are 24th in defensive efficiency. The Rockets should have the advantage on that side of the ball. Also, the Timberwolves rank fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.4 percent), while the Rockets rank third in defensive rebounding percentage (79.9 percent).
Minnesota comes into the contest with records of 47-35 straight up (SU) and 38-41-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 82 games, 45 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 65-17 SU and 41-39-2 ATS. Vegas is known to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 47 of their 82 games have ended under the O/U total.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Minnesota is 17-22-2 ATS on the road with 21 overs and 20 unders.
At home, Houston is 17-23-1 ATS with 22 unders and 19 overs.
Minnesota is 19-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Houston is 32-3.
The Rockets are 62-12 when they score over 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 44-22.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (42.3) while Minnesota ranks last (22.5).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.2) while the Rockets rank 28th (40.7).
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while Houston ranks 11th (7.4).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while the Rockets rank 14th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.8).
Houston ranks 16th in fast break points per game (11.4) while Minnesota ranks 25th (9.7).
The Timberwolves rank 17th in assists per game (22.7) while the Rockets rank 25th (21.5).
Houston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.4) while Minnesota ranks 12th (4.7).
The Timberwolves average 13.6 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Rockets rank 10th in second chance points allowed per game (11.9).
Minnesota allows the third-fewest rebounds per game (41.8) while Houston ranks fourth (42.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Houston is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, up from 2.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 101.2 points per game (11.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 100.2 points per game (3.7 below their season average).
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