The Oklahoma City Thunder challenge the Utah Jazz at Chesapeake Energy Arena to open the First Round of the Western Conference Playoffs. The game can be seen on TNT at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 15, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 206 points with Oklahoma City opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Free Prediction
The Thunder lead the season series against the Jazz three games to one, including a 14-point victory in their last matchup. Oklahoma City covered as a 2-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 192 points, which was just 5 points below the projected point total of 197 points. The Thunder had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.6 vs. 16.7) and had a much better turnover percentage (6.9 vs. 12.9). Westbrook put up a triple-double in the victory, with 27 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists.
The battle on the backboards could prove decisive, pitting strength against strength. The Thunder rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (27.7 percent), while Utah ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.8 percent). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Jazz, which ranks 24th in ball security (turnover percentage of 14.5 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Thunder, which forces the most turnovers in the league (15.3 percent).
Utah holds records of 48-34 straight up (SU) and 43-39 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Jazz games, with 42 unders compared to 39 overs.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 48-34 SU and 33-47-2 ATS. Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Thunder are involved, as 46 of their 82 games have gone under the projected point total.
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Utah is 21-20 ATS on the road with 23 overs, 17 unders and 1 push.
Oklahoma City is 15-24-2 ATS at home with 23 unders and 18 overs.
Oklahoma City is 22-5 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Utah is 34-7.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Jazz are 39-12 and the Thunder are 44-18.
Oklahoma City averages 9.1 steals per game, which ranks first in the NBA. Utah ranks 23rd in steals allowed per game (8.3).
The Thunder rank first in second chance points per game (15.0) while the Jazz rank 23rd (11.3).
Utah ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (26.0) while Oklahoma City ranks 24th (30.6).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points per game (15.2) while the Jazz rank 22nd (10.2).
Oklahoma City ranks first in points off turnovers per game (18.6) while Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.5).
The Thunder rank fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while the Jazz rank 20th (43.3).
Utah ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.0) while Oklahoma City ranks 14th (23.3).
The Jazz rank second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.8) while the Thunder rank seventh (43.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 15.0, up from 4.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 115.2 points per game (7.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.6 points per game (2.2 above their season average).
+++++
