The SMU Mustangs burst onto the scene in college basketball last season, and for the last month and a half of the season, almost everyone thought that the Ponies were going to make the NCAA tournament. However, on Selection Sunday, they were left out in a move the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee later said was part of a process in which SMU was the “first team out.” How can SMU go from being the first team out to a team that can comfortably make the tournament? A few needs come to mind.
2013-14 Recap
So much went right for SMU, a program with a very minimal and dark basketball history in the football-mad state of Texas. SMU is just not known for its hoops, coming from the old Southwest Conference and then knocking around the second-rate conferences in college athletics before moving to the American Athletic Conference.
When the program hired an old veteran of the coaching business, Larry Brown, it seemed like a desperate move with a guy who was out of touch. Brown had not coached in college basketball since his stint at Kansas in the 1980s. Brown has generally had a sketchy track record in terms of staying clean with recruits, so when SMU grabbed him, people wondered if Brown could still be a fit in the college game.
He was supposed to have worked out an arrangement for assistant coach Tim Jankovich, formerly the head coach at Illinois State, to become the next head coach. Brown’s age (72 when he started the 2012-2013 season) suggested that Jankovich’s time would come sooner rather than later.
Now, however, it might be later rather than sooner.
Brown brought SMU to the forefront in the AAC and in the state of Texas. The Mustangs swept eventual national champion Connecticut last season. They won home games against Cincinnati and Memphis, part of a season in which the team lost only one game on its home floor. SMU looked like a tournament team until a season-closing three-game losing streak put the team on the bubble. The loss that hurt the most was a setback to Houston in the quarterfinals of the AAC Tournament. Had SMU won that game, it probably would have made the Big Dance.
What hurt SMU late in the season was that jump shots stopped falling. In particular, point guard Nic Moore lost his touch. He ran into foul trouble in the team’s one home-court loss, to Louisville, and barely attempted any shots. In the loss to Houston in the AAC Tournament, he went 0-for-9 from the field. SMU was so potent on offense for most of the season, but it faltered in the heat of pressure as the team tried to make an NCAA tournament appearance.
During the season, what killed SMU was ball security. The Mustangs committed an average of 19.8 turnovers per game, way too high a total. The team shot the ball really well – 48.3 percent overall, 51.6 percent from two-point range, and 37.9 percent from three-point range, all in the top three of the conference and all in the top 50 of the nation. Yet, those percentages were partly the product of taking fewer shots… because of all the turnovers. If SMU turns the ball over less in 2014 and 2015, the shooting percentages might drop, so that has to be kept in mind.
SMU was in the top 60 in the nation in field goal defense – overall field goal defense, two-point defense, and three-point defense. You might ask why this team didn’t make the NCAA tournament with all these great numbers. Well, the Mustangs scheduled a lot of easy teams in non-conference play, and that was the stated reason for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee keeping the Ponies out of the Big Dance.
Offseason Changes
The Mustangs were hurt in the offseason when their expected signature recruit, Emmanuel Mudiay, withdrew from the school amidst an NCAA investigation into an illegitimate (fronted) prep school for which he held credits. Mudiay went to China to play professionally, presumably for one year before he goes into the 2015 NBA Draft. With Mudiay, SMU was expected to be a Sweet 16 team at worst, a Final Four contender at best. Now, the Sweet 16 is the ceiling, and a tournament berth is what’s expected.
The Mustangs still have the advantage of returning three of their five starters from last season: Moore at the point, forward Markus Kennedy, and forward Sterling Brown. Guard Nick Russell and forward Shawn Williams are gone. Five reserves – Yanick Moreira, Cannen Cunningham, Ben Moore, Ryan Manuel, and Keith Frazier – all return to give Brown and Jankovich a lot of continuity. Transfer Ben Emelogu will be asked to provide some production as well, not to mention the freshmen that are coming in.
Projected Finish
The Mustangs should do well in the AAC with Connecticut losing some key players and Louisville moving out of the league to the Atlantic Coast Conference. As long as SMU does enough in non-conference play this season, it should be able to take the extra step and get to the NCAAs, but winning a game might be a problem without Emmanuel Mudiay.
Pick: Second In The AAC, Round of 64 In The NCAA Tournament
