The New York Mets are heading south to play their division rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. SportsNet New York will be televising the matchup and the game will get going at 7:35 p.m. ET.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves Odds
Vegas is listing Atlanta (-110) as the favorite over New York (+100). Gamblers can wager on the game’s total with odds posted at +105 for over 9 runs and -125 for under 9. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at -210 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +175 for the Braves -1.5.
The Braves are 10-7 SU and 11-5 ATS. They’ve gained 5.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.0 units against the spread (ATS). Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Mets have gone 13-4 SU this year and are 10-6 ATS. In total, the team’s gained 8.7 units for gamblers taking the moneyline in this young season and 5.6 units ATS. New York has covered the spread just twice over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Braves games have had an over/under record of 5-8-3 so far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 7-9.
Right-hander Matt Harvey will get the nod for the visiting Mets. Harvey is 0-1 with a 4.80 ERA and 13 strikeouts. He has yet to face Atlanta this year, but he did make four starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 1-2 record with a 5.91 ERA and 10 strikeouts.
The Braves are putting the ball in the hands of righty Matt Wisler (0-0, ERA), who has zero strikeouts and zero walks, as well as a WHIP. Wisler only made one start against the Mets in 2017 (0-1, 9.00 ERA and nine strikeouts across 11 innings).
New York’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starters own a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.49 K/9. The bullpen has managed an excellent ERA of just 2.56, along with a K/9 of 10.37.
Mets hitters have slashed .242/.342/.402 on their way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
New York’s hitters have been led by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier. Cabrera is slashing .343/.384/.612 with 23 hits, eight RBIs and 16 runs scored, while Frazier (.291/.438/.491) has produced 16 hits, two homers, 13 RBIs and 10 runs scored.
Maintaining a slash line of .261/.386/.505 across 228 plate appearances, Frazier thrived hitting against righties on the road last year (compared to his total season line of .214/.345/.425).
For the home team, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 3.8 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.41 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.09 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. In 12 games against divisional foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.96 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.13.
The Atlanta offense has produced 5.4 runs per outing, including 5.3 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .286/.365/.400 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
First baseman Freddie Freeman and shortstop Dansby Swanson have led the Braves’ batters so far. Freeman is slashing .288/.468/.492 with 17 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, while Swanson’s line is .358/.394/.582 with 24 hits, 11 RBIs and nine runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitching at home last season, slashing .362/.475/.638 over 160 such plate appearances.
The Mets have gained 6.2 units and are 7-5 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 4.5 units and are 10-4 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, as opposed to seven which went under the total.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
Atlanta has posted 20.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 24.8 over its last five.
The Mets have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 10 over their last 10.
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