The Pittsburgh Pirates will be facing off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This NL matchup begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans can watch it on either ATPT or NSPA.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Both teams have equal moneyline odds (-105) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8.5 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. Runline odds stand at +140 for taking the Pirates -1.5 runs and -160 for the Phillies +1.5.
The Phillies are 11-7 SU and 6-11 ATS. The team’s gained 2.2 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 7.8 units against the spread (ATS). The Pirates have gone 12-7 SU this year and are 10-8 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 5.8 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 3.5 units ATS.
Phillies games have an 8-8-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Pittsburgh has an over/under record of 11-6-1.
Right-hander Ivan Nova is projected to start for the visiting Pirates. Nova is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA and 22 strikeouts. He has yet to face Philadelphia this year, but he did make two starts against the Phillies in 2017, putting together a 1-1 record against them with a 4.72 ERA and four strikeouts.
The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Ben Lively (0-1, 5.87 ERA), who has 17 strikeouts and three walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.63. Lively only made one start against the Pirates in 2017 (0-1, 4.50 ERA and four strikeouts across four innings).
Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 6.90 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.26, along with a WHIP of 1.25.
Pirates hitters have slashed .256/.329/.422 on their way to 5.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Pittsburgh’s hitters have been led by right fielder Starling Marte and catcher Francisco Cervelli. Marte is hitting .282/.386/.521 with 20 hits, seven RBIs, 16 runs and five steals, while Cervelli is hitting .278 with 15 hits, two homers, 12 RBIs and six runs scored.
Marte didn’t do as well hitting against right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017, putting up a slash line of .250/.289/.317 across 128 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .275/.333/.379).
In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitching staff has yielded 3.8 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have an ERA of 3.14, a WHIP of 1.15 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.3. The bullpen has a 3.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.
The Philadelphia offense is putting up 5.3 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .224/.354/.315 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
Left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led the way for the Phillies’ batters so far. Hoskins is hitting .327/.486/.618 with three home runs, 14 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Hernandez’s line sits at .286/.430/.413 with 18 hits, eight RBIs, 14 runs and five steals.
The Pirates have gained 6.2 units and are 8-6 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in seven of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have lost 2.1 units and are 3-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in five of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve cashed the under.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The over has hit in three of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
Pittsburgh has posted 19.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 18.6 over its last five.
The Pirates have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 10 over their last 10.
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