The Miami Marlins are ready to play the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. The game gets underway 2:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be showing this NL showdown.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Miami (+180) is coming into this one as the underdog against Milwaukee (-190) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this afternoon’s game at 9.5 runs. Odds for betting on the game’s total sit at -115 for the under and -105 for the over. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at -125 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and +105 for the Brewers -1.5.
The Brewers are 13-9 SU and 12-9 ATS. They’ve gained 3.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.3 units against the spread (ATS). Milwaukee has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Marlins have gone 5-15 SU this year and are 6-13 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 4.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline in the season’s early going and 8.9 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Brewers games have an over/under record of 9-12 so far in 2018. The Marlins have an over/under record of 11-8.
Southpaw Caleb Smith is projected to start for Miami. Smith is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 22 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Brewers are putting the ball in the right hand of Junior Guerra (1-0, 0.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), who has 11 strikeouts and five walks this season. Guerra only made one start against the Marlins in 2017 (0-1, 7.71 ERA and nine strikeouts across four and 2-third innings).
As a unit, Milwaukee’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 4.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.76, a WHIP of 1.13 and a K/9 of 10.5.
The Milwaukee offense has put up 4.1 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game over its last 10 games and 6.0 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .297/.403/.544 over its last five matchups and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.
The Brewers’ batters have been led by Eric Thames and Travis Shaw. Thames is hitting .254/.362/.661 with seven home runs, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored, while Shaw’s line is .296/.387/.531 with four homers, 10 RBIs and 14 runs.
Thames didn’t do as well hitting against lefty pitching at home in 2017. In 56 such plate appearances, he slashed .188/.304/.438 (his total season line was .247/.359/.518).
In the other dugout, Miami’s pitchers have allowed 6.2 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.72 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 7.50 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.64, along with a K-per-9 of 10.09.
Marlins hitters have slashed .225/.299/.313 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
Third baseman Brian Anderson and first baseman Justin Bour have led Miami’s offense. Anderson is slashing .254/.391/.366 with 18 hits, 11 RBIs and nine runs scored, while Bour is hitting .225/.304/.408 with 16 hits, four homers, 11 RBIs and seven runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 3.5 units and are 5-10 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in nine of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 0.0 units and are 3-3 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, as opposed to three which went under the total.
Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games SU.
Miami has recorded 18.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 18.0 over its last five.
The Marlins have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Brewers have hit 17 over their last 10.
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