The Milwaukee Brewers will be squaring off against their division rival Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising the matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds Odds
Cincinnati (-120) is the favorite over Milwaukee (+110) and oddsmakers have the Over/Under for this game at 9.5 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). The game’s most recent runline odds sit at -190 for betting the Brewers +1.5 runs and +165 for the Reds -1.5 runs.
The Brewers are 18-13 SU and have gone 17-13 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 4.5 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 2.9 units ATS. The Reds, on the other hand, are 7-23 SU and 14-15 ATS. They’ve lost 13.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.3 units ATS.
Cincinnati games have a 14-15 over/under record so far in 2018. Milwaukee has been a decent under bet with a total record of 11-19.
Southpaw Wade Miley is getting the start for the visiting Brewers. Miley is 0-0 with an ERA. He has yet to face the Reds this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 1.13 ERA and 11 strikeouts over eight innings).
The Reds will put the ball in the right hand of Luis Castillo (1-3, 7.85 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), who’s got 24 strikeouts and 13 walks this season. Castillo is 1-0 with eight strikeouts and a 5.40 ERA over one starts against Milwaukee this year.
Cincinnati’s pitchers have yielded 5.6 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 5.60, a WHIP of 1.48 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 6.9. The bullpen has a 5.06 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 17 divisional games, Reds starters have an ERA of 6.23 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.78.
Cincinnati’s offense has produced 4.1 runs per outing, including 3.0 per game against divisional foes and 7.0 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .315/.406/.516 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
First baseman Joey Votto and left fielder Jesse Winker have led the Reds’ offense so far. Votto is hitting .269/.408/.404 with four home runs, 15 RBIs and 12 runs scored, and Winker’s line sits at .313/.420/.398 with 26 hits, nine RBIs and nine runs.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .298/.375/.529, Winker appeared to take a step back when hitting at home last season, slashing .259/.358/.414 across 67 plate appearances.
For the visitors, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 3.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 6.49 K/9. The bullpen has managed an outstanding ERA of just 2.43, along with a WHIP of 1.30.
The Brewers offense has slashed .234/.306/.382 on its way to 3.9 runs scored per game this year, including 2.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Milwaukee’s offense has been led by Lorenzo Cain and Eric Thames, who have combined to swat 11 home runs. Cain is slashing .279/.392/.462 with four home runs, 10 RBIs, 18 runs and eight steals, while Thames is slashing .250/.351/.625 with seven homers, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored.
The Brewers have gained 3.5 units and are 13-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in seven of those games, as opposed to 14 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 1.8 units and are 2-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in three of those games, compared to one which went under the total.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Notes
The over has cashed in only one of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
The Reds have lost three of their last four games SU.
Cincinnati has recorded 27.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 30.2 over its last five.
The Brewers have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.
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