The Washington Capitals at PPG Paints Arena in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semis. The game gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, May 3 and it can be viewed live on NBC Sports Network.
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Odds
Pittsburgh (-165) is currently favored over Washington (+145), and the oddsmakers have put the Over/Under (O/U) at an even 6 goals. The line for betting the total stands at -110 for the over and -110 for the under.
Washington is 55-36 straight up (SU) and has earned 12.9 units for moneyline bettors this season. Through 91 regular season matches, 51 of its games have gone over the total, while 38 have gone under and just two have pushed. The Caps are 25-20 SU as an away team in 2017-18.
Following a regular season where they found the net on 23.7 percent of all power-play chances (the seventh-best), the Capitals have connected on 31.4 percent of their power plays in the postseason. Their penalty kill has gone from 80.8 percent in the regular season to 84.8 percent in the playoffs.
Washington’s offense attempted 29.6 shots per game in the regular season, resulting in 3.2 goals per outing (ranked ninth overall in the NHL). In the postseason, the club is risen to an average of 34.6 shots on goal and up to 3.8 goals per game.
Boasting a .909 save percentage and 27.5 saves per game, Braden Holtby (40-22-5) has been the top option in goal for Washington this season. If it chooses to give him a rest, however, Washington may turn to Philipp Grubauer (15-22-5 record, .919 save percentage, 2.47 goals against average).
Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov will both lead the way for the visiting Capitals. Ovechkin has 100 points via 57 goals and 43 assists, and has recorded two or more points 29 times. Kuznetsov has 32 goals and 60 assists to his name, and has registered a point in 55 games.
Pittsburgh is 52-39 straight up (SU) and has lost 4.1 units for moneyline bettors this year. 50 of its matches have gone over the total, while 36 have gone under and just five have pushed. The team is 31-14 SU at home this year.
Pittsburgh enters the matchup with the first-best power-play unit in the NHL, as the team has found the net on 25.2 percent of its extra-man opportunities this season. On the other hand, its penalty kill is ranked 17th overall, and it’s successfully killed off 80.6 percent of all penalties.
Pittsburgh skaters have been whistled for penalties 4.0 times per game in total this season, and 4.8 per game over their last five at home. The team’s been forced to defend opponent power plays 11.8 minutes per contest over their last five home games.
Matt Murray (25.9 saves per game) has been the top choice in goal for Pittsburgh. Murray has 34 wins, 24 losses, and three overtime losses to his credit and has maintained a fairly-weak .906 save percentage and 2.85 goals against average this season.
Sidney Crosby (37 goals, 69 assists) will lead the offensive attack for Pittsburgh.
Washington Capitals vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Free Picks
Pick: SU Winner – Penguins, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in three of Washington’s last five games.
The Penguins are 16-8 in games where the team outshoots its opponent by 10 or more. They’ve averaged the league’s second-most shots on goal (33.9) while the Capitals have attempted just the 31st-most (33.9).
Power plays and penalty kills may play a key role tonight. The Capitals are 16-12 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 30-19 in games where they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes. The Penguins are 24-13 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than the opposition and 33-22 when they’re in the box for less than 10 minutes.
Pittsburgh has managed 9.8 takeaways per game over its last five home games, an improvement over its season average of 7.1 takeaways per game (ranked 18th in the NHL).
Washington is ranked 14th in the NHL with 7.3 takeaways per game. That figure has trended higher recently, as the team has forced 8.7 takeaways over its last 10 games and 9.8 takeaways over its last five.
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