The Atlanta Braves will be facing off against their division rival New York Mets at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will broadcast the action and the game gets going at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Odds
Both teams have identical -105 moneyline odds and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this one at 8 runs (-135 for the over and +115 for the under). The game’s current runline odds sit at +140 for betting the Braves -1.5 runs and -160 for the Mets +1.5.
The Mets are 17-11 SU and 15-12 ATS. They’ve gained 6.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.1 units against the spread (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. On the other hand, the Braves are 18-11 SU and have gone 18-10 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 10.0 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 8.3 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.
Mets games have a 14-12-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Braves games have gone over 13 times, gone under 12 times and pushed on three instances.
Starting pitchers and matchups
Julio Teheran will get the nod for the visiting Braves. The right-handed Teheran is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 29 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against New York this year (five starts).
The Mets are putting the ball in the left hand of Jason Vargas (0-1, 22.09 ERA, 3.27 WHIP), who has five punchouts and three walks this season. Vargas hasn’t faced the Braves yet this year and did not record a start against them in 2017.
New York’s pitching staff has given up 4.4 runs per game overall this season as a unit. The team’s starters have a 4.02 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 16 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.39 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.66.
The New York hitters are putting up 4.6 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .253/.316/.397 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier have led the Mets’ batters so far. Cabrera is hitting .327/.383/.551 with five home runs, 17 RBIs and 20 runs scored, while Frazier’s line is .255/.385/.429 with four homers, 17 RBIs and 17 runs scored.
Cabrera seemed to have some trouble hitting at home last season, slashing .245/.315/.366 across 241 plate appearances (his overall season line was .280/.351/.434).
For the visiting squad, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starters own a 3.20 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 9.13 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.85, along with a K-per-9 of 9.49.
The Braves offense has slashed .273/.345/.445 on its way to 5.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).
Atlanta’s hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Nick Markakis. Freeman is slashing .333/.444/.568 with four home runs, 22 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Markakis (.322/.415/.487) is up to four homers, 20 RBIs and 17 runs scored.
Compared to his total season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman didn’t do especially well against lefties in 2017, maintaining a slash line of .278/.357/.524 across 143 plate appearances.
The Braves have gained 1.4 units and are 1-2 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in one of those games, as opposed to two that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 3.4 units and are 10-10 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 11 of those games, as opposed to eight which went under the total.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Free MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Braves have won six of their last seven games SU while the Mets have lost three of their last four SU.
New York has posted 20.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.2 over its last five.
The Braves have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit eight over their last 10.
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