The Utah Jazz (1-1) meet the Houston Rockets (1-1) at Vivint Smart Home Arena in game three of the Western Conference Semifinals. The game will air on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, May 4, 2018.
Houston is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 207.5 points.
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Betting Prediction
Harden led both teams with 32 points in game two, in which the Rockets lost 116-108, unable to cover as 10.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 224 points, which was 20 points above the projected point total of 204 points. Utah was lights out from beyond the arc (15-32; 46.9 percent). Houston, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (6.1 vs. 15.3).
Points could be at a premium as a pair of the NBA’s best defenses face off. Utah ranks first in defensive efficiency (102.1) and Houston is fifth (104.5). Furthermore, the Rockets commit the fifth-fewest errors in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.9 percent), while the pesky defense of the Jazz causes the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.6 percent).
Houston comes into the game with records of 70-19 straight up (SU) and 45-42-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Rockets are involved, as 55.1 percent of their games have ended under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Utah is 53-37 SU and 47-43 ATS. Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Jazz games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Clint Capela (14.2 points, 14.2 rebounds and 1.6 blocks) has been stellar for the Rockets while Donovan Mitchell (27.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.2 steals) has made solid contributions to the Jazz.
Houston Rockets vs. Utah Jazz Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Rockets, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Houston is 25-17-1 ATS with 25 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
Utah is 24-20 ATS at home with 26 unders and 18 overs.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Houston is 34-3 and Utah is 37-7.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Rockets are 67-14 and the Jazz are 43-13.
Utah ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.6) while Houston ranks 27th (48.1).
The Rockets average 8.5 steals per game, which ranks fifth in the league. The Jazz rank 25th in steals allowed per game (8.4).
Utah ranks second in fast break points allowed per game (9.9) while Houston ranks 15th (11.8).
The Rockets rank first in three pointers attempted per game (42.2) while the Jazz rank 13th (29.6).
Houston averages 17.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Utah ranks 17th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.7).
The Jazz rank first in assists allowed per game (19.7) while the Rockets rank 11th (22.4).
Houston ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Utah ranks 10th (4.6).
The Jazz rank second in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while the Rockets rank seventh (11.6).
Utah ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.9) while Houston ranks sixth (42.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Houston is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs.
Utah is 2-3 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push over their last five games.
The Rockets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.4, down from 8.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Jazz have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
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