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Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free Pick 05/04/18

Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros are heading west to face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona will be airing this interleague showdown.

Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

Vegas is listing Houston (-190) as the favorite over Arizona (+180). The total sits at eight runs and bettors can take either the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the most recent odds standing at -135 for the Astros -1.5 runs and +115 for the Diamondbacks +1.5.

Astros vs Diamondbacks

The Astros have gone 20-13 SU this year and are 16-16 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 1.9 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season and 2.4 units ATS. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are 21-10 SU and 17-13 ATS. They’ve gained 13.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.0 units ATS.

Diamondbacks games have a 14-15-1 over/under record so far in 2018. Houston has been a decent under bet with a total record of 12-18-2.

The right-handed Gerrit Cole will get the start for Houston. Cole is 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA and 61 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Diamondbacks this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 2.57 ERA and five strikeouts over seven innings).

The Diamondbacks will turn to righty Kris Medlen (0-0, ERA), who has zero strikeouts and zero walks as well as a WHIP. Medlen did not accrue any MLB pitching stats in 2017.

Arizona’s pitching staff has yielded 3.2 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have a 3.47 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 2.16, a WHIP of 1.02 and a K/9 of 8.4.

Arizona’s hitters have put up 4.5 runs per outing, including 4.4 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .256/.328/.423 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Outfielders A.J. Pollock and David Peralta have led the Diamondbacks’ batters so far. Pollock is slashing .307/.365/.684 with 10 home runs, 25 RBIs, 21 runs and eight stolen bases, and Peralta’s line is .297/.390/.515 with five homers, 17 RBIs and 15 runs scored.

For the visiting squad, Houston’s pitching staff allowed 2.9 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.71 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.43, along with a K/9 of 10.07.

Astros hitters have slashed .250/.332/.393 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Shortstop Carlos Correa and second baseman Jose Altuve have led Houston’s hitters. Correa is hitting .307/.378/.518 with five home runs, 22 RBIs and 21 runs scored, while Altuve (.328/.382/.412) has produced two homers, 15 RBIs and 17 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .345/.409/.547, Altuve enjoyed hitting against righties on the road in 2017, putting up a slash line of .393/.460/.680 across 248 such plate appearances.

The Astros have gained 0.8 units and are 11-10 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in eight of those games, compared to 12 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have netted 4.1 units and are 8-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in nine of those games, as opposed to seven which went under the total.

Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Free MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Astros, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The over has cashed in only two of Houston’s last seven games.

Arizona has posted 21.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 20.4 over its last five.

The Astros have hit 10 home runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have hit 15 over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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