NCAAF Picks: The Kansas State Wildcats are again a team that is greater than the total sum of their parts with their Hall of Fame coach Bill Snyder, who never hauls in top ranked recruiting classes but always has his team fully prepared and well-drilled to eliminate mistakes. The West Virginia Mountaineers are showing improvement under head coach Dana Holgorsen but still lack the depth to compete for the long haul in the Big 12 Conference.
The West Virginia Mountaineers will host the Kansas State Wildcats at Mountaineer Field on Thursday night with coverage on Fox Sports One starting at 7 PM ET. The game opened as a pick ‘em.
Purple in the Black
Kansas State is 7-2 straight up, 6-3 against the spread, and 6-3 over the total. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week which followed a 41-20 showdown loss at TCU. The Wildcats were riding a five game winning streak SU, and a six game winning streak ATS before the loss.
KSU ranks 57th in the nation for overall offense but 20th for scoring offense. Their solid defense ranks 29th overall and 21st for points allowed. WR Tyler Lockett is a man to watch as he is re-writing his father’s school records in a sensational career.
Sliding Down the Mountain
West Virginia is 6-4 both SU and ATS with a 3-7 mark under the total. The Mounties have lost their last two games and are coming off a bye that followed a 33-16 defeat at Texas. West Virginia ranks 12th overall for total offense but 35th for scoring offense. The improved defense has gone from atrocious to merely mediocre and ranks 62nd for points allowed.
Our Pick
Kansas State has been a strong betting value on the road with 13 payouts in their last 18 away match-ups with five out of their last six away games going over the total.
West Virginia has been a sub-par home value with just seven payouts in their last 18 games at Mountaineer Field. The Mounties have gone under the total in eight out of their last 13 home games.
Kansas State has won and covered the spread in their previous two meetings with West Virginia with both of the games going under the total.
The Mounties are certainly improving and Holgorsen is likely to retain his job as recruiting is up and a defense that was once a sieve has since tightened up. But Kansas State is a firmly established program that is deeper on both sides of the line and with Snyder they have as good of a coach as can be found.
Kansas State is the call.
