NCAAF Picks: The Wisconsin Badgers made a powerful national statement last week in their 59-24 win over Nebraska in which they pounded and thrashed the Huskers into submission while taking control of the Big Ten West Division. The Iowa Hawkeyes have an extreme Jekyll and Hyde personality that keeps their fans and handicappers constantly on edge.
The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Wisconsin Badgers at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN2 starting at 3:30 p.m. ET. Wisconsin opened as a nine point favorite.
Badgers on a Roll
Wisconsin is 8-2 straight up, 5-5 against the spread, and 5-5 on totals. The Badgers have won five games in a row straight up and have come away with the cash in their last four games. Wisconsin’s strength is a power running game that ranks third in the nation and a defense that ranks first overall nationally and third for points allowed. RB Melvin Gordon set the NCAA record for rushing yards in a single game last week with 408 and four TD’s.
Iowa Roller Coaster
The Iowa Hawkeyes are 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and 5-5 on totals. Iowa is coming off a 30-14 home payout over Illinois that followed a 51-14 loss at Minnesota. Iowa has a solid defense that ranks 18th overall in the nation but their offense has been plodding and ranks 72nd overall. Iowa has improved as a betting value as the season has progressed with five payouts in their last seven games. The Hawkeyes can still win the Big Ten West if they win their final two games.
Matchup and Pick
Wisconsin has been a decent betting value in road games with eight payouts in their last 14 away games. The Badgers have gone under the total in six out of their last eight away games.
Iowa has been a terrible board value at home recently with just six payouts in their last 20 games at Kinnick Stadium with five out of their last eight home games going under the total.
Wisconsin has won and covered the spread in their last two meetings with Iowa. The Badgers scored a 28-9 home payout last year and were 31-30 winners at Iowa as 6.5 point dogs in 2012. The Badgers and Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five out of their last eight meetings. Wisconsin has come away with the money in three out of their last four visits to Iowa with three of those four games going over the total.
Iowa has been far too inconsistent for our taste and we’ll call for Wisconsin and over the total in this one.
